MSCI World

There are just two drivers setting the pace for today's risk mood: the OPEC meeting in Vienna which started a few hours ago, and the ECB's announcement as well as Mario Draghi's press statement due out just one hour from now. Both are expected to not reveal any major surprises, with OPEC almost certainly unable to implement a production freeze while the ECB is expected to remain on hold and provide some more details on its corporate bond buying program, although there is some modest risk of upside surprise in either case.

With one after another bank issuing downgrade reports on global stocks, including such stalwarts as JPM and, most recently, Goldman, overnight a far more important market entity - the world's largest asset manager - joined the club when BlackRock downgraded U.S. and European stocks to neutral, citing elevated U.S. valuations and the higher probability of a midyear interest-rate increase by the Federal Reserve. 

The dollar's recent rapid slide has been accompanied by a constant backdrop of dovish cooing from the Fed. Until this week, SocGen's Albert Edwards notes that both equity and commodity markets had embraced the weak dollar as the elixir to solve all their ills. That relief, however, has now proved fleeting as fear of weak economic activity has reasserted its influence on investors. The weak dollar, Edwards warns, should be seen as merely a shuffling of deckchairs on the Titanic before the global economy sinks below the icy waves.

Ahead of the most important macroeconomic event of the week, US nonfarm payrolls (Exp. +200,000, down from 215,000 and following a very poor ADP report two days ago), the markets have that sinking feeling again.

One month ago, when looking at the overall level of short interest across the market, we reported that according to JPM, the "most painful part of the short squeeze may be yet to come", and sure enough, aided by an unprecedented amount of central bank intervention, the market has since surged, in no small part due to ongoing covering of short positions.

However, one look at the NYSE short interest data reveals something troubling: there are still many shorts out there.