In its just released lastest market report for the month of July, OPEC admitted it has a problem: more than six months after the Vienna deal that was supposed to bring supply and demand in balance, the oil cartel confirmed it is pumping too much, not only in 2017, but also in 2018, blaming shale production as the primary reason behind the oversupply.
Having v-shaped recovered yesterday after disappointing Russian comments (on no news whatsoever), crude prices are tumbling once again this mornig, WTI back to $43 handle, after Saudi Arabia told OPEC it pumped 10.07 million barrels a day in June, a person with knowledge of the data said, exceeding its production limit for the first time since brokering a deal to curb global crude supply to counter a glut.
Goldman has done it again: less than two weeks after the bank said "oil prices have likely hit bottom of the price range, and look attractive" when it slashed its WTI price target from $55 to $47.50 (and every other Wall Street bank promptly followed), in a note released overnight by its analysts including Damien Courvalin and Jeffrey Currie, the central banker incubator has effectively thrown in the towel, and writes that while its 3 month base case price target remains$47.5, it warns that absent a "shock and awe" production cuts from OPEC, oil could tumble below $40/barrel
Dispensing his usual dose of optimistic crude oil buzzkill, Bloomberg energy strategist Julian Lee points out something troubling to both OPEC, and those who are hoping that the latest dip in oil will finally lead to a sharp rally. He writes that while at first glance, this year’s diminishing U.S. oil stockpiles appear to support the notion OPEC is finally getting the global crude glut under control. Surging exports mean that the market should treat that idea with caution.
Despite headlines from Kuwait's oil minister that Nigeria and Libya had been asked to joing OPEC/NOPEC discussions with the view of agreeing to a production cap, crude prices are tumbling once again this morning, not helped by dramatic price targetr cuts by BNP and Macquarie.
As Bloomberg reports, oil fell from the lowest closing price in two weeks as talk of Libya and Nigeria being requested to cap their production failed to dispel doubts about the effectiveness of OPEC’s cut.
Futures were down over 1% in New York, extending last week’s 3.9 percent drop.