Authored by George Friedman and Jacob Shapiro via MauldinEconomics.com,
There’s no end in sight to slumping oil prices - good news for consumers but a dire development for major oil producers like Saudi Arabia and Russia. And now, rising US oil production and exports are contributing to the slump.
While the June oil production data is still pending, it is safe to say that the June oil output from US shale producers - estimated today by the EIA at 5.348mb/d - will post the first double-digit production growth since July of 2015, when oil prices tumbled and a substantial portion of US production was briefly taken offline.
Chart courtesy of Forge River Research
Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,
The OPEC/non-OPEC deal is working, and the current underlying key assumption of Russia’s economic policies—oil prices at US$40—can allow it to live forever at that price or below, Russia’s Economy Minister Maxim Oreshkin told Bloomberg in an interview on the sidelines of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum on Thursday.
http://www.bloomberg.com/api/embed/iframe
Authored by Nick Cunningham via OilPrice.com,
The U.S. shale industry might have just received a huge windfall with the nine-month extension of the OPEC cuts. Shale output was already expected to come roaring back this year, but the extension of the cuts provides even more room in the market for shale drillers to step into.
Over the past year, as OPEC developed the unpleasant habit of jawboning the price of oil higher on nothing but flashing red headlines, targeting headline scanning algos, many compared the oil-producing cartel to another familiar institution whose core mandate is higher asset prices: the Federal Reserve. However, the similarities are not enough, and according to Goldman's chief energy analyst Jeffrey Currie, OPEC should learn from the U.S. Federal Reserve and do more to explain its long-term oil-output policies instead of just focusing on short-term goals.