Politics

Wisconsin Republican voters go to the polls for their presidential primary today, and Trump seems certain to lose the state to Cruz. Nate Cohn explains why Trump is having so much trouble in the Badger State:

But his problem in Wisconsin is mainly about the state’s demographics, not self-inflicted wounds. Even a 10-percentage-point loss there wouldn’t necessarily indicate any shift against him.

The state has always looked as if it would be one of Mr. Trump’s worst. This was true even before the primaries began.

Although I’ve developed something of a reputation as a Trump booster (I can’t imagine why), I’ve always been aware of the potential difficulties actually winning the nomination that Ross Douthat identifies. Because of his extraordinarily low level of support from party regulars, if Trump doesn’t actually get an outright majority of the delegates, enabling him to win on the first ballot, it’s difficult to see him winning additional support on a second, third or later ballot.

We suspect more than a few 'prosecuted' bankers will be smiling wryly today as, following the exposure of his offshore financial dealings - revealed in the Panama Papers - Iceland's embattled Prime Minister Sigmundur David Gunlaugsson has just resigned. And after two days of denials and one protest, Notgunlaugssoon may be more appropriate.

The Wall Street Journal chides Trump and Cruz for wanting Kasich to drop out:

Mr. Cruz wants Mr. Kasich out now because he figures the delegates in Cleveland will choose Mr. Cruz if the choice is down to him and Mr. Trump. But if Mr. Kasich is still an option, the delegates might favor him as a better November candidate.

As of this moment, the Atlanta Fed calculates Q1 GDP to be -0.7% (Bank of America has it at 0.6%). We expect this number to be promptly revised even lower following the latest disappointing trade data from the US, when moments ago the BEA reported that the US February deficit rose from $45.9BN to $47.1BN, missing the $46.2BN consensus estimate. This was the largest monthly deficit since August 2015's $50.5BN, and the number is likely only going to increase as the US is once again forced to start importing more oil with its own shale industry increasingly mothballed.