As of this moment, the Atlanta Fed calculates Q1 GDP to be -0.7% (Bank of America has it at 0.6%). We expect this number to be promptly revised even lower following the latest disappointing trade data from the US, when moments ago the BEA reported that the US February deficit rose from $45.9BN to $47.1BN, missing the $46.2BN consensus estimate. This was the largest monthly deficit since August 2015's $50.5BN, and the number is likely only going to increase as the US is once again forced to start importing more oil with its own shale industry increasingly mothballed.
From the BEA:
The U.S. monthly international trade deficit increased in February 2016 according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau. The deficit increased from $45.9 billion in January (revised) to $47.1 billion in February, as imports increased more than exports. The previously published January deficit was $45.7 billion. The goods deficit increased $0.9 billion from January to $64.7 billion in February. The services surplus decreased $0.3 billion from January to $17.7 billion in February.
Exports
Exports of goods and services increased $1.8 billion, or 1.0 percent, in February to $178.1 billion. Exports of goods increased $1.8 billion and exports of services decreased less than $0.1 billion.
The increase in exports of goods mainly reflected increases in consumer goods ($1.1 billion) and in other goods ($0.6 billion).
The decrease in exports of services mainly reflected decreases in transport ($0.2 billion), which includes freight and port services and passenger fares, and in financial services ($0.1 billion). An increase in travel (for all purposes including education) ($0.2 billion) was partly offsetting.
Imports
Imports of goods and services increased $3.0 billion, or 1.3 percent, in February to $225.1 billion. Imports of goods increased $2.7 billion and imports of services increased $0.3 billion.
The increase in imports of goods mainly reflected an increase in consumer goods ($3.6 billion). A decrease in automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($1.5 billion) was partly offsetting.
The increase in imports of services reflected increases in travel (for all purposes including education) ($0.1 billion), in other business services ($0.1 billion), which includes research and development services; professional and management services; and technical, trade-related, and other services, and in transport ($0.1 billion).
Goods by geographic area (seasonally adjusted, Census basis)
- The deficit with China increased $1.0 billion to $32.1 billion in February. Exports decreased $0.3 billion to $8.4 billion and imports increased $0.8 billion to $40.5 billion.
- The deficit with Canada increased $0.3 billion to $1.0 billion in February. Exports decreased $0.7 billion to $21.6 billion and imports decreased $0.4 billion to $22.6 billion.
- The balance with members of OPEC shifted from a deficit of $0.2 billion in January to a surplus of $1.9 billion in February. Exports increased $1.6 billion to $7.4 billion and imports decreased $0.4 billion to $5.5 billion.