Today The House passed the 2018 budget resolution in a 219-207 mostly party-line vote (18 republicans voted against the resolution along with all Democrats), representing the first step toward the Republican goal of sending tax-reform legislation to President Trump.
One of the reason why the torrid dollar rally of the past few weeks appears to have plateaued, at least for the time being, is that just like earlier in the year, doubts have emerged about the viability of the "new and improved" tax plan, which according to the Tax Policy Center would mostly benefit the "Top 1", even as it eventually pushes taxes for the upper middle class progressively higher.
Just hours before the Trump tax plan was leaked this morning, Goldman noted that "even if this tentative budget agreement in the Senate becomes official the forthcoming proposal would have to be scaled substantially to fit within the fiscal constraints Congress is likely to impose" which we summarized as follows:
In other words, for all the hype, the final Trump tax cut - if it passes - will be a pale shadow of its initial proposal
Goldman also presented the following comparison table to summarize how the expected plan would fare in context:
This afternoon, during a speech in Indianapolis, President Trump will unveil the long-anticipated Republican tax reform proposal that calls for substantial business and individual tax cuts. As has been leaked previously, the tax plan is anticipated to disclose a 35% individual tax rate (although Congress may push it higher), a tax rate on corporations and pass thrus that will be around 20% and 25% respectively, while doubling the standard deduction to $12,000 for individuals.
Ahead of the Trump administration's official disclosure of what its latest tax proposal would look like, overnight Axios leaked some of the more salient highlights, the first being that the tax rate for the wealthiest Americans would be cut to 35% and second, taxes on on big and small businesses would be reduced substantially, with plans to cut the top tax rate for “pass through" businesses from 39.6% to 25% - a move which would impact LLCs and sole-proprietorships.