South Carolina

If you look at the Real Clear Politics chart of the average polls results for South Carolina, you’ll see a trend that looks somewhat like what Iowa looked like before the caucus, namely: Trump in the lead but dropping, and Rubio steadily rising. Trump’s lead is considerably larger than it was in Iowa pre-caucus, plus he’s held that lead in South Carolina far longer, plus South Carolina is a primary rather than a caucus. But the trend lines are still somewhat similar. So: is a similar surprise in the offing? Will Trump significantly underperform his polls?

Tim Alberta reports on how South Carolina Gov. Haley’s endorsement of Rubio is being spun by his opponents:

This is smart spin, aimed at inflating Rubio’s expectations in the run-up to Saturday’s primary. It’s also an entirely fair observation.

Jeb Bush held a rally with his brother yesterday in South Carolina where the former president endorsed the younger Bush:

Jeb Bush, facing increasing pressure in South Carolina after lackluster showings in early contests, brought his older brother, George W. Bush, and the former first lady, Laura Bush, to vouch for his decency and judgment here in a race that has been driven in recent weeks by coarse language, anger and personal insults.

The ninth Republican debate was the most vitriolic and angry one we’ve seen so far this cycle. Trump went after Cruz, Rubio, and Bush, and all of them directed most of their attacks against him for what seemed like the first time. The audience was packed with party regulars, who obsequiously cheered whatever Rubio and Bush said while loudly booing Trump. They were pretty clearly not representative of the South Carolina voters that will go to the polls at the end of the week. The biggest clash came between Trump, Bush, and Rubio over the Iraq war, 9/11, and George W.

The first post-New Hampshire poll from South Carolina shows that Trump continues to lead comfortably. He leads Cruz 36-20%, while Rubio (15%), Bush (11%), Kasich (9%), and Carson (5%) divvy up the rest. That represents a slight improvement of a few points for Trump, Cruz, Rubio, and Kasich over the last poll from this same outfit. Unsurprisingly, Trump wins in almost every category. Once again, his support is spread very evenly across all different age and ideological groups.