Massive liquidity issues in China wealth product liquidation, commodities crashing, oil plunging, US macro data disappointments, US earnings disappointments, and Buffett dumping Big Blue - only makes sense that The Dow just had its quietest 8 days since 1952!!!
With all eyes on crude, following last night's mini flash crash which sent WTI lower by 3% from just above $45 to under $43 in under 10 minutes, equity markets, generally quiet overnight, have taken on a secondary importance ahead of today's key risk event, the April payrolls report (full preview here). In global equities, Asian and European stocks are lower, while S&P futures are little changed.
The spread between "hard" and "soft", or survey and sentiment data, ever since the election has been extensively noted and discussed on this website in recent months (especially since over the past two months the soft data has rolled decisively over, while the Citi economic surprise index has crashed at the fastest pace on record). Which is why it will come as no surprise to readers that, as Goldman writes in a note looking at "Peak Sentiment", over the past six months, US “sentiment surveys” have outpaced both “activity surveys” and “hard data”.
Via Francesco Filia of Fasanara Capital
“Learn how to see. Realize that everything connects to everything else.” – Leonardo da Vinci
Hard data ceased to be a driver for markets, valuation metrics for bonds and equities which held valid for over a century are now deemed secondary. Narratives and money flows trump hard data, overwhelmingly.
Less than a month after the latest forecast from JPM's Marko Kolanovic left something to be desired, when the famous quant said "it is no longer prudent to buy the dip" only for the dip to be furiously bought, whether by algos or ETFs, "Gandalf" is back with another discussion of his favorite topic, and an emphasis on a issue that is near to all traders' hearts, namely what could lead to a "volatility explosion."