S&P 500

Morgan Stanley is out with a helter skelter note of caution on markets, warning investors to sell the Trump inauguration while upping earnings estimates by 18% for 2018 -- citing material upside in earnings and multiple contraction.
 
Plainly, if what Morgan Stanley says comes to fruition, stocks should trade higher on the backs of buybacks, fiscal stimulus, and big corporate tax cuts. However, the sages at Morgan are worried about the recent scale of the rally, coupled with Fed hike fever risks, European uncertainty and of course a rising dollar.
 

Having gotten virtually none of his "surprise" forecasts for 2016 right - among which that the S&P will decline (after it was supposed to rise by 15% in 2015 when it closed red for the year), the 10Y will not rise above 2.50%, Hillary Clinton will defeat Ted Cruz in the presidential election, Democrats will gain control of the Senate, Chinese growth drops below 5% as the country's banks "get in trouble", crude oil remains in the $30s, and global growth falls to 2% (he did correctly predict just one rate hike, and the continuation of the European refugee crisis), today

Morgan Stanley's Adam Parker has undergone an epistemological catharsis of sorts in the past year: having called 2013-2015 largely accurately, 2016 threw him for a loop, when he entered the year bullish, only to turn bearish, and then to flip again (along with most other sellsiders) shortly after the Trump victory.

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Silver Prices and the Russian Connection

Posted with permission and written by Gary Christenson (CLICK HERE FOR ORIGINAL)

Rumors of the Trumpflation rally's death have been greatly exagerated, and not only is the Dow 20,000 back on the radar, following a 124 point surge in Dow futures, bringing the "key psychological level" back within 100 points, but European stocks rose for a third day and entered a bull market, rising 20% from theor lows set last February, following strong Chinese manufacturing and services PMI data, both of which ended 2016 on robust notes well inside expansion territory.