The market moves since the US elections have been both big and surprising, and as JPMorgan notes, fund managers have been either too slow or too reluctant to jump into the Trump trade. However, algo-based Risk-Parity funds suffered the most with their biggest loss since Dec 2015 as market 'fear' tumbles to 9 month lows (and stocks are the most overbought in 13 years).
Two days ago we reported that according to a troubling - for retailers - survey conducted by Reuters/Ipsos, nearly two thirds, or 63% of US adults, did not plan to shop on Black Friday. It is unclear what exactly is causing this sharp slump in US consumerism: according to Christopher Baldwin, CEO of BJ's Wholesale Club, one excuse is that "Black Friday is no longer a one-day event; it has turned into a multi-week event." Another possible reason is that shellshocked by soaring Obamacare premiums, US adults simply have far less disposable cash which to splurge on holiday trinkets.
Having soared to fresh 13 year highs in a quiet overnight session on thin liquidity due to the US Thanksgiving holiday, which sent the USDJPY just shy of 114 and the Yuan to 6.96, the dollar pared back its weekly advance with modest profit taking after traders wondered if the rally has gotten "too stretched." European shares were fractionally higher, with Asian stocks and US equity futures rising and both the Dow Jones and the S&P set for new all time highs.
While most global equity markets were subdued due to the US Thaksgiving holiday, the FX world was very busy overnight, marked by the relentless dollar surge on expectations of a rate hike not only in December but further in 2017, sending Asian currencies to the weakest level in 7 years: the Bloomberg-JPMorgan Asia Dollar Index reached 103.32, the lowest level since March 2009.
Having exploded higher in the run-up to the election, market expectations of the correlation between stocks within the S&P 500 have completely collapsed since to new record lows.
Simply put, massive systemic overlays were placed ahead of the election event, and were forced to be unwound increasingly aggressively as the post-Trump rally caught everyone offside (the unwind would mean relatively heavy selling of Index protection relative to single-name protection).