United States

Authored by David Stockman via The Daily Reckoning,

Back in the 1950s when GM had 50% of the auto market they always said that, “As General Motors goes, so goes the nation.”

Oil bounced notably overnight after a surprisingly large crude build reported by API, but there was some selling in QTI/RBOB into today's DOE data, but that ended quickly as DOE reported major inventory draws across the board sending WTI spiking above $46. However, after last week's drop, US crude production (in the Lower 48) soared by its most in 6 months.

API

After praising Poland’s conservative ruling party during his visit to Warsaw on Thursday, President Trump quickly shifted his focus back to the escalating missile crisis in North Korea, saying that he is contemplating “some pretty severe things” to retaliate against Kim Jong Un after he tested an ICBM on America's independence day, capable of reaching US territory.

“I have some pretty severe things we’re thinking about," Trump said at a news conference in Warsaw. "Doesn’t mean we’re going to do them. I don’t draw red lines."

S&P futures are sliding this morning, down 0.4% and tracking the accelerating decline in European and Asian stocks, driven by a move higher in global interest rates, which started with Japanese 10Y yields rising to 0.1% for the first time since February, but mostly Bund yields which spiked after tripping stops, and jumped as high as 0.53% for the first time since early 2016. Oil climbs, dollar and gold slide. Economic data include initial jobless claims, trade balance, Markit PMI readings.

Authored by James Durso via TheHill.com,

The Cold War was never won or lost; it just ended one day. Who even remembers where they were on December 3, 1989? 

As the Cold War ended, the U.S. forswore a demand for unconditional surrender, thanked God it was over, and thought about how to spend the peace dividend. The message Russia took away was: We didn’t lose.