United States

Can Truth Prevail?

Paul Craig Roberts

According to official US economic data, the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has expanded for 22 quarters, raising real GDP 12.1% above its high prior to the 2008-09 economic contraction. Yet, US manufacturing output and US industrial production have not recovered to their pre-contraction high.

So what is driving the real GDP growth? In my opinion, the rise in real GDP is an illusion produced by the under-measurement of inflation.

With the US stock market likely to continue its levitation today, it means that by close of trading, the S&P500 will be above 2,400, the same as Goldman's year end price target, and 100 points away from Bank of America's "euphoric blow off top" destination, which is also known as Michael Hartnett's Icarus Trade. In a note released overnight, Hartnett confirms that he is "sticking with our “Icarus Trade” targets: SPX 2500, GT30 3.5%, DXY 110, oil $70/b", even as he admits that the euphoria level in stocks is unprecedented:

Trump Avoid Debt Crisis ? "Extremely Unlikely" says Rickards

The upcoming March 15 U.S. debt ceiling deadline is something that is being largely ignored by markets and most media for now. Despite it being just 9 trading days away. This will change in the coming days and is one of the many reasons why we are bullish on gold.

Source: CNN

Via George Friedman and Jacob Shapiro of MauldinEconomics.com,

Via Ted Galen Carpenter of The Strategic Culture Foundation,