FX Traders Have To (Re)Learn A New Skill
Dear FX traders: forget the dot plot, and prepare to learn a new - or to some forgotten - skill: how to read trade flows.
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United States
Recession Alert: Treasury Receipts Turn Negative For The First Time Since The Financial Crisis
On the surface, today's monthly budget statement showed good news: in January the US Treasury brought in total receipts of $344 billion, versus outlays of only $293 billion, resulting in a surplus of $51 billion, substantially greater than the $40 billion expected (and well above last year's $28 billion deficit), a surplus which however was largely due to a law requiring the IRS to delay sending out tax refund checks to household claiming certain tax credits.
Trump Is ‘Seriously’ Considering Moving US Embassy To Jerusalem
Donald Trump says he is “thinking seriously” about moving the American embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem al-Quds. In an interview with Israeli newspaper Israel Hayom on Friday, the US president said that he is studying the relocation plan, stressing it is not an easy decision to make. There are fears that such a move could spark renewed violence in Israel and the Muslim world, and risks showing the US is no longer interested in pursuing a two-state solution. The holy city is contested by the Palestinians and Israel, who both claim it as their capital.
US Rig Count Rise Continues: What Will OPEC Do If The Market Doesn't Rebalance?
EIA confirmation of OPEC cut-compliance is trumping the dismal inventory data and surging US production for now. However, as US oil rig counts continue to rise (+8 to 591 - highest since Oct 2015) with US crude production charging ahead with it, the question many should be asking (given all-time record high net long speculative positioning in WTI/Brent) is "what will OPEC do if the market doesn't rebalance?"
Putin Says Ready To Meet Trump In Melania's Native Country
Russian President Vladimir Putin thanked Slovenia on Friday for offering to host his first meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump, saying he is ready to meet his American counterpart, Donald Trump, however added that the prospect of such a meeting hinges on Washington. "It depends not only on us, but we are naturally ready for it," he said. The Russian leader hailed Slovenia, where Trump's wife Melania was born and grew up, as an "excellent" venue for possible talks with Trump.