window fallacy

Even before Harvey and Irma were set to punish Texas and Florida, erasing at least 0.4% GDP from Q3 GDP according to BofA and costing hundreds of billions in damages (contrary to the best broken window fallacy, the lost invested capital more than offsets the "flow" benefits from new spending, which is why the US does not bomb itself every time there is a recession to "stimulate growth"), things were turning south for the US economy, so much so that according to the latest Deutsche Bank model, which looks at economic data that still has to incorporate the Irma/Harvey effects,

There are still two to three days before the peak flooding - and damage - in Houston arrives, yet already Wall Street is trying to calculate how much the worst natural disaster in decades befalling the 4th largest American city will impact US GDP. Or rather boost it, because in two notes out late in the day Monday, one from Goldman and one from JPM, the authors come to two polar opposite conclusions: Goldman claims that the Houston natural disaster will reduce Q3 GDP by as much as 0.2%, while JPMorgan predicts that the "net impact on Q3 and Q4 GDP should be positive."