Last week at the SALT conference in Las Vegas, Joe Biden sent some mixed messages about a potential 2020 presidential run. First, he took a shot at Hillary saying she "was never a great candidate" though he followed that up by adding that she "would have been a really good president"...which makes perfectly good sense. Then Biden went on to talk about how he has no intentions of running in 2020 just before confirming that he "may very well do it."
Of course, with politicians you can generally learn more about their intentions through their actions rather than their rhetoric. And Biden's intense speaking schedule seems to reflect that of a candidate that has presidential ambitions. Per The Hill:
Still, Biden’s busy recent schedule of events and appearances suggests he hasn’t entirely ruled out another bid.
Biden has attended a hedge fund conference in Las Vegas and a fundraiser for New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D). His jam-packed calendar also includes upcoming speeches at the Florida Democratic Party and at a few college commencements. Biden will also receive an award at the Democratic National Committee’s (DNC) LGBT Gala next month.
But the appearance that drew the loudest buzz was Biden’s speech last month at a state party dinner in New Hampshire — a critical early state in the presidential primary circuit. During his speech, Biden sought to tamp down the 2020 rumors.
"When I got asked to speak, I knew it was going to cause speculation," Biden said to applause, only to add, "Guys, I'm not running.”
If successful, Biden would be 78 by the time he took office making him, by far, the oldest president in history.
A recent poll from Public Policy Polling found Biden as the leading Democratic contender in a hypothetical matchup against Trump with a head-to-head lead of 14 points, 54% to 40%. Of course, we've seen this story playout before with pollsters persistently underestimating Trump's support through 2016.
And while those numbers may seem comforting, even close Democratic strategists don't think Biden will run in 2020.
“I don’t have any idea what he’s going to do other than what he says publicly, which is he’s not inclined to do it at this point. I don’t think he knows what he’s going to do honestly,” said Steve Schale, a former Obama campaign aide in Florida who worked on the Draft Biden movement in 2016. He noted that he hasn’t spoken to Biden since Christmas.
“The idea that Joe Biden would continue to do what he’s done for 40 years … shouldn't come to anybody’s surprise, nor do I think anybody should read into it that he’s definitely made a decision. He’s keeping his word that he was going to remain active in the public space and work on the issues he cares about.”
“This is who he is, this is what he’s done his whole life,” Schale said. “I think you’re going to see Joe Biden remain a pretty prominent fixture in American politics.”
"He has a very valuable role to play, but I don’t think he’s in the same league with the Sanders and Warrens of the world,” said Democratic strategist Brad Bannon. “They have bigger microphones and platforms to speak from.”
That said, one Democratic strategist had the guts to point out the real reason that Biden will likely never be the Democratic candidate for president: “I think Democrats are going to want a new face, somebody fresh"....which can be loosely translated as 'he's too white and too old."