Climate Change Is Shrinking the Pool of Winter Olympic Host Cities
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Key Takeaways
- Many Winter Olympic hosts already sit in the “marginal” zone—where snow conditions are less consistent.
- By 2071–2100 in a high emissions scenario, only 5% of host cities could meet high-reliability thresholds, while 67% are projected to be unreliable.
- The gap between low- and high-emissions futures highlights how climate policy could shape the long-term future of the Games.
For decades, the Winter Olympics have depended on cities with reliably cold temperatures and natural snowfall. But as global temperatures rise, that pool of suitable host cities is shrinking.
A study published in Current Issues in Tourism evaluated 93 past and potential host sites under different emissions scenarios. It measures whether these cities can consistently deliver freezing temperatures and sufficient natural snowfall for safe competition. Statista visualized these findings.
Just 5% of Winter Olympic Host Cities Meet High-Reliability Thresholds by 2100
Here’s the full dataset showing how Winter Olympics host site reliability shifts across historical and future emission scenarios:
| Time Period / Scenario | Reliable | Marginally Reliable | Unreliable |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1981-2010 | 43% | 38% | 19% |
| 2041-2070 (low emissions projection) | 43% | 33% | 24% |
| 2041-2070 (high emissions projection) | 19% | 38% | 43% |
| 2071-2100 (low emissions projection) | 38% | 33% | 29% |
| 2071-2100 (high emissions projection) | 5% | 29% | 67% |
Between 1981–2010, 43% of host cities were classified as climate-suitable for winter sports, while only 19% were considered unreliable. Under a high-emissions scenario for 2071–2100, that flips dramatically: just 5% remain suitable, and 67% are considered unreliable.
Even under a more optimistic low-emissions pathway, the share of reliable hosts drops significantly compared with the late 20th century.
Where Emissions Pathways Make a Difference
The study models two broad futures: one aligned with the Paris Agreement’s lower-emissions targets, and another based on current higher-emissions trends.
Under a low-emissions scenario aligned with Paris Agreement targets, more cities remain viable later in the century. Under higher-emissions trends, many traditional venues fall into the unreliable category.
Which Regions Fare Better, and Worse
Research identified that higher-elevation mountainous regions and hosts in cooler continental climates generally maintain climate reliability longer than lower-elevation sites and those closer to maritime zones. For example, future Alpine sites and places in North America with sustained cold spells are more resilient compared with some European low-elevation hosts that warm faster. However, even these more resilient sites see declines in reliability under high warming.
This evolving climate landscape is already influencing how the International Olympic Committee considers future bids: prioritizing existing infrastructure and climate reliability helps de-risk future Games, while warming trends are prompting conversations about rotating among a smaller pool of dependable locations and adjusting event scheduling.
As warming continues, the Winter Olympics may be confined to a much smaller group of dependable locations.