Heading into the Fed's first "dovish" rate hike in nearly a decade, the consensus was two-fold: as a result of relentless telegraphing of the Fed's intentions, the hike is priced in, and it will be a "dovish" hike, with the Fed lowering its forecast for the number of hikes over the next year. Consensus was once again wrong on both accounts: first the rate hike was far more hawkish than most had expected (see previous post), and - judging by the surge in Asian, European stocks and US equity futures - the "market" simply is enamored with such hawkish hikes which will soon soak up trillions in liquidity from the financial system.
Whatever the reason, global stocks surged on Thursday as investors around the world reacted positively to the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates and the confidence in the U.S. economy that underpinned the move. European stocks moved higher in early trade, following sharp gains across Asian markets and a higher close on Wall Street in response to the widely expected move by the Fed to end a seven-year experiment with near-zero interest rates.
This is where we stand as of this moment::
- S&P up 0.3% at 2071
- Stoxx 600 up 2.2% to 368
- FTSE 100 up 1.4% to 6147
- DAX up 3% to 10783
- German 10Yr yield down 8bps to 0.6%
- Italian 10Yr yield down 7bps to 1.63%
- Spanish 10Yr yield down 6bps to 1.7%
- S&P GSCI Index down 0.6% to 305.8
- MSCI Asia Pacific up 1% to 131
- Nikkei 225 up 1.6% to 19354
- Hang Seng up 0.8% to 21872
- Shanghai Composite up 1.8% to 3580
- S&P/ASX 200 up 1.5% to 5102
"What we see today is basically a sigh of relief,” said Johan Javeus, chief strategist at SEB Group quoted by the WSJ “Equity markets are taking comfort in the fact that this is not the path of a rapid hiking cycle.”
“The messaging around the decision is about as positive as one could expect for investors: a positive economic assessment paired with fairly dovish central bank guidance,” said Eric Lascelles, chief economist at RBC Global Asset Management, in a note.
The U.S. dollar dropped when the Fed started tightening policy in 1994, 1999 & 2004. Some strategists believe this time will be different. The reason can be found in the Fed's projections for where rates will be in the future. As in September, four hikes are penned for 2016. That's two more than investors are pricing in, according to Fed fund futures. The thinking is: As the market catches up with the Fed, the dollar will rise. A Bloomberg gauge which tracks the greenback against 10 leading global currencies is gaining for a sixth day, the longest stretch in almost two months. The index has risen 9 percent in 2016, its third year of gains.
A closer look at Asian markets, shows stocks tracked the firm gains seen in US equities with the Nikkei 225 (+1.6%) outperforming as gains were further stoked by a weaker JPY relative to the USD, while the ASX 200 (+1.5%) was led by Utilities following reports that AGL Energy gave a 5 %yr contract to WorleyParsons. Chinese bourses completed the positive regional tone triggered by the Fed rate decision (Shanghai Composite: 1.8%). 10yr JGBs traded flat after paring earlier gains following the weaker than prior 20yr JGB auction.
Top Asian News
- Goldman Takes Ax to Iron Ore Outlook as Industry to Hibernate: Iron ore will average $38 a metric ton next year, $35 in both 2017, 2018, new forecasts are 13% to 14% lower than GS’s previous outlook
- Hong Kong Raises Base Rate for First Time Since 2006 After Fed: HK key rate raised to 0.75% from 0.5%, monetary authority had held its rate at record low since 2008, tracking Fed
- BOJ Is Finished Boosting Stimulus, in View of Half of Economists: Survey conducted before Fed rate hike, 48% of respondents said they don’t expect additional stimulus, up from 46% in Nov. survey
- This Fed Move Is Different as UBS Sees Pain in Emerging Markets: Firms incl. UBS, Citi say more pain is in store after the first U.S. rate increase in almost a decade as emerging markets haven’t fallen enough to reflect subdued growth
- Rajan’s Crackdown on $59 Billion Bad Loans Means India M&A Surge: Volume of deals in India will jump from 5-yr high
In a similar fashion to Asia, European focus has been firmly on the fallout of the Fed rate decision, with participants processing the rate lift off and its wider consequences. European equities (Euro Stoxx: 2.5%) took the lead from their US and Asia-Pacific counterparts to trade firmly in the green, benefitting from the FOMC assumption that the US economy is strong enough to handle higher interest rates. The financial sector leads the way higher, with the 25bps hike inspiring the sector, while defensive sectors such as also healthcare are also among the best performers. Gains have been capped by energy names, the laggard on a sector breakdown, with the industry weighed on by softness in the energy complex.
In line with equity markets, fixed income markets have been reacting to the FOMC decision throughout the European morning, with upside being seen Bunds and Gilts amid touted real money and leveraged buying, while the curve has flattened on the prospect of a shallower than previously anticipated rate cycle. Also of note, the EONIA fix continued to slip lower overnight to hit new record lows.
Top European News
- Putin Says Russian Economic Crisis Has Peaked Amid Oil Slump: Govt sees GDP growing by 0.7% next year
- UBS Buys Back $6.1 Billion of Debt, Bonds in Public Tender: Buys senior, subordinated debt to lower interest expenses
- Swiss Government Says Growth to Pick Up ‘Slowly’ Into 2017:
In FX, price action in the USD has been relatively muted so far today, with the greenback holding on to much of its overnight gains (USD Index: +0.2%), most notably against EUR and GBP, with 1.4922 appearing as a significant level of resistance in GBP/USD, with the pair moving back higher off this level heading into the release of better than expected UK retail sales release (Inc Auto Fuel M/M 1.70% vs. Exp. 0.60%).
Separately, today saw the Norges bank rate decision, where the central bank kept rates on hold at 0.75% despite outside bets to cut rates and as such, EUR/NOK saw downside in the wake of the release as these outside bets were unwound. While during Asia-Pacific hours, NZD/USD saw mild support following a better than expected New Zealand GDP release (Q/Q 0.90% vs. Exp. 0.80%) however failed to hold onto the gains amid the USD strength.Today's highlights come in the form of weekly US jobs data, Philadelphia Fed business outlook and EIA nat gas storage change.
The energy complex continues to feel the effects of yesterday's DoE's as well as FOMC inspired USD strength, with WTI heading into the North American crossover in close proximity to USD 35.00/bbl. Separately, nat gas prices reside in positive territory today in paring of recent mild weather inspired losses, which saw the commodity price reach its lowest level since 1999. This comes ahead of today's EIA nat gas storage change, expected at -41 bcf (Prey. -76bcf).
In terms of the metals complex, gold saw pressure overnight following significant gains during yesterday's morning as well as the Fed decision, which is seen to dampen demand for gold due to its inflationary-hedge status. Elsewhere, copper prices were also weaker on USD strength post-Fed lift-off, while iron ore prices gained alongside a continued rebound in steel prices as falling output in November suggests the oversupply could be easing.
Top Global News:
- China Southern Hands $10b Aircraft Order to Boeing: China Southern, unit Xiamen Air to buy combined 110 737 planes
- AstraZeneca to Buy Acerta for $4 Billion, Adding Cancer Drug: Acerta’s acalabrutinib shows promise against leukemia, lupus
- Scotiabank Said to Review $1.75b Thanachart Bank Holding: Scotiabank starts gauging interest in 49% stake in Thai lender
- Yellen Voices Economic Optimism as Fed Begins Gradual Tightening: Fed chair says ‘myth’ economic expansions must die of old age
- Blanchflower Says Fed Rate Hike Is ‘Fingers-Crossed Economics’
- AIG to Buy Back Another $3b of Stock Amid Icahn Pressure: CEO Hancock has repurchased $9.7b of stock this year
- Shaw Joins Canadian Wireless Fray With $1.2b Wind Deal: Cable company is major entrant in Canadian wireless industry
- Shale Drillers Are Now Free to Export U.S. Oil Into Global Glut: U.S. crude supplies at 85-year high after production boom
- ConocoPhillips, 28 Energy Producers Face Moody’s Rating Cuts: Moody’s reviews 29 U.S. oil and gas exploration, production cos.
- Apollo to Centerbridge Said to Weigh Bids to Buy Italian Banks: Sale of four banks may fetch more than EU1b
- Cerberus Said to Near Avon Stake Deal, to Pick New Chairman, WSJ Says: Near to pay $435m for ~17% stake in Avon Products, $170m for 80% of its North America business
Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk and Bloomberg:
- European equities took the lead from their US and Asia-Pacific counterparts to trade firmly in the green in the wake of yesterday's FOMC decision
- Price action in the USD has been relatively muted so far today, with the greenback holding on to much of its overnight gains
- Today's highlights come in the form of weekly US jobs data, Philadelphia Fed business outlook and EIA nat gas storage change
- has scheduled three term RRP operations for this month, first on Dec. 18; yesterday Fed removed RRP cap, said about $2 trillion in USTs available for operations
- While it’s unlikely RRP usage will hit Fed’s new $2t limit, “this appears to be as close to unlimited as the Fed can make it,” Brean Capital’s Russ Certo wrote in note yday
- Even if he Fed lifts its benchmark to 1.5% a year from now, as JPMorgan predicts, the bank’s economists still see the rate for the key industrial economies undershooting 1% next December as the ECB and BOJ stay on hold
- Goldman took the ax to its iron ore forecasts, predicting the price will remain under $40 a ton for the next three years as China’s slowdown forces the global industry into a long period of hibernation
- Germany’s Ifo institute business climate index dropped to 108.7 from 109.0 in November. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists was for an unchanged reading
- Putin signaled that Russia is ready to shoot down any Turkish military aircraft that strays into Syrian airspace, saying Turkey’s downing of a Russian bomber in the region damaged relations between the two countries beyond repair
- No IG or HY deals yesterday. BofAML Corporate Master Index OAS tightens 1bp to +173, YTD range 180/129. High Yield Master II OAS tightens 11bp to +698 after reaching new YTD wide Tuesday; YTD low 438/733
- Sovereign 10Y bond yields lower. Asia, European stocks and U.S. equity- index futures rise. Crude oil mixed, gold and copper fall
US Event Calendar
- 8:30am: Current Account Balance, 3Q, est. -$118.5b (prior -$109.7b)
- 8:30am: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook, Dec., est. 1 (prior 1.9)
- 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, Dec. 12, est. 275k (prior 282k); Continuing Claims, Dec. 5, est. 2.2m (prior 2.243m)
- 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Dec. 13 (prior 40.1)
- 10:00am: Leading Index, Nov., est. 0.1% (prior 0.6%)
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap:
Markets certainly got a taste of the stratosphere after the news as we saw a decent rally across US equity and credit markets that has extended across Asia this morning. A very short-lived dip in the minute post liftoff aside, the S&P 500 rose strongly off its pre-hike levels to close up +1.45%, around a percent of which came post the news. In the credit space CDX IG finished around 1bp tighter, while CDX HY continued its strong run this week to close nearly 11bps tighter and the two big US HY ETF’s were up close to 1% again. The VIX sank 15% while looking across rates markets 10y Treasuries finished pretty much where they were in the moments prior to the hike around 2.296% (up +3bps on the day), while 2y yields broke past 1% for the first time since 2010. The US Dollar was up a smidgen versus the Euro and Yen but was down against the Aussie and Kiwi Dollar. Gold was up over 1%.
In fact for the first time in a while big swings in Oil markets, which have more than played their part in the direction of markets of late, were put to one side. It was impressive to see the rally in US equities and HY coming despite a steep -4.90% fall for WTI (back down below $36), which in turn more than wiped out the rebound that we had seen in the first two days this week. US HY energy spreads actually closed ‘just’ 2bps wider yesterday, so pretty resilient all things considered.
As we refresh our screens the rally has extended in the Asia session this morning. Gains are being led out of Japan were the Nikkei is up over 2%, while there’s decent gains also for the Hang Seng (+0.92%), Shanghai Comp (+1.49%) and ASX (+1.62%). There’s little change in Oil markets, while the same can be said for US equity market futures. Credit markets are off to a positive start in Asia too with markets generally a couple of basis points tighter. Meanwhile the only data has come out of Japan where the trade deficit came in a touch smaller than expected, primarily due to a higher than expected decline in imports last month.
So what to make of the FOMC statement, projections and Fed Chair Yellen’s press conference then. As expected the committee for the outlook for economic activity and the labour market as now being ‘balanced’, a change in rhetoric from the previous statement of ‘nearly balanced’. Much of the focus was on how the Fed was to determine the timing and size of future adjustments, although the statement continued to emphasize that ‘the committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate’ before then emphasizing the dependence on incoming data. It was also noted that the Fed expects to maintain the current size of its balance sheet ‘until normalization of the level of the federal funds rate is well under way’.
As was largely expected there weren’t particularly big changes to the Fed’s median forecasts relative to their September projections for real GDP growth, unemployment and inflation. 2016 GDP growth was revised up one-tenth (to 2.4%), while the 2017 and 2018 forecasts were left unchanged at 2.2% and 2.0%. The unemployment rate is expected to decline to 4.7% for the next three years, which is down from the previous 4.8% forecast. Meanwhile the core PCE inflation rate was revised down one-tenth for this year and next (to 1.3% and 1.6% respectively) but left unchanged for 2017 and 2018, the latter being the year when the Fed expects to hit its 2% target.
It was the revised dot plot projections that was most anticipated. While there had been some suggestion that the 2016 median dot could decline, it was kept unchanged at 1.375% or the equivalent of four 25bps hikes although it was noted that the central tendency range was revised lower. The 2017 median dot was nudged down 25bps to 2.375% while the 2018 median dot was down 12.5bps to 3.25%. The longer-term neutral rate was left unchanged at 3.5%. So while the path of the dots were tinkered with, it still concluded with the same terminal rate.
In the post-meeting press conference Yellen said that the decision ‘reflects our confidence in the US economy’ and that ‘we see an economy that is on the path of sustainable improvement’. She highlighted that while developments abroad still pose a risk, these ‘appear to have lessened since last summer’. Yellen also argued once again that the softness in inflation is transitory and that a delay in policy normalization would have meant policy would need to be tightened abruptly later.
In our view then it had a little for everyone and its hard to say with any conviction whether it favored the hawks or the doves more. With just two hikes priced in by the market next year, it’s likely there’ll be some disappointment from the doves that there was no change to the median 2016 dot. Then again some will be excited by the cuts to the 2017 and 2018 projections. The macro forecasts were a bit of a wash, if anything the most notable takeaway being a small downgrade to 2016 inflation. Meanwhile Fed Chair Yellen offered nothing particularly new, emphasizing moves will be gradual while also keeping her options open. We still don't think the Fed will get anywhere close to the dots but that due to our late cycle view.
Away from the Fed it was actually a relatively busy day for data yesterday. It was a bit of a mixed bag in the US in particular. November housing starts (+10.5% mom vs. +6.6% expected) and building permits (+11.0% mom vs. -1.0% expected) came in well above expectations. November industrial production was softer than expected however at -0.6% mom (vs. -0.2% expected) while manufacturing production came in line at 0.0% mom. Capacity utilization nudged down to 77.0% (vs. 77.4% expected) from 75% and is now at its lowest level since 2013. Finally the flash December manufacturing PMI fell 1.5pts to 51.3 after expectations had been sitting at 52.6.
It was a fairly unexciting session in Europe where risk assets finished a smidgen firmer (Stoxx 600 +0.24%, Crossover 3bps tighter). In terms of themade reference to the risk data, the flash Euro area composite PMI was a tad softer this month at 54.0, a fall of 0.2pts from November after expectations had been for no change. The decline was driven by the services PMI (-0.3pts to 53.9) which reflect a 1pt fall for France’s services PMI, a likely reflection of the Paris attacks last month. The Euro area manufacturing PMI did however nudge up 0.3pts to 53.1. Our European economics colleagues noted that the composite reading for the Euro area this month points to solid growth of close to +0.5% qoq in Q4. Meanwhile the final Euro area CPI reading for November was revised up one-tenth to +0.2% yoy, while the core was left unchanged at +0.9% yoy. In the UK the data was a bit of a mixed bag. The unemployment rate ticked down one-tenth to 5.2% however there was a notable downtick in wage growth with total earnings growth ex bonuses falling to +2.0% yoy, from +2.5% previously.
Before we look at the day ahead, there’s also a bit of news to highlight out of South America this morning. Late last night Argentina announced that it was to lift the controls it had in place on the Argentinean Peso as of today in a bid to improve the currency’s competitiveness. Meanwhile in Brazil yesterday we learned that Fitch had followed S&P in downgrading the sovereign to high yield, having downgraded by one notch to BB+ (and maintaining a negative outlook). The move came sooner than expected to our EM colleagues and with Moody’s now the only agency rating the sovereign IG still, a downgrade appears only a matter of time.
As we move on from the Fed and look at the day ahead, the European session will kick off this morning with the December IFO survey out of Germany, followed closely by the UK retail sales numbers for November. The UK CBI total orders data for December is due out after this while we’ll also hear the latest monetary policy decision from the Norges Bank (no change expected). Across the pond this afternoon, the December Philly Fed business outlook is due, while last week’s initial jobless claims data is also expected. Later on we will also get the Conference Board leading index for November .