At this point in the war against ISIS, which as we pointed out previously is in full retreat now that its supply of oil-based funding from Turkey has dried up, the only question is when some of the main strongholds of the Islamic State in the region fall, putting what's left of the terrorist organization in terminal disarray. Chief among ISIS' core cities are Raqqa and Deir el-Zour in Syria and Mosul, Baiji and the outskirts of Baghdad, including Falluja in Iraq.
First, a big picture view of the situation.
As RFERL reported yesterday, a triumphant Iraq says it has retaken around two-thirds of the territory seized by the Islamic State in the militant group's lightning-fast sweep across the country's north and west in 2014; a sweep that was funded and supported by not only Saudi Arabia and Qatar, but also by the CIA as we learned one year ago.
"Daesh's presence in Iraqi cities and provinces has declined. After occupying 40 percent of Iraqi territory, now only 14 percent remains," government spokesman Saad al-Hadithi said in a televised statement on May 11. While that calculation appeared rosier than recent estimates from John Kerry, even the official US estimate reveals that IS had lost 44% of the territory it held in Iraq.
Iraq's military, along with Kurdish Peshmerga forces, Shi'ite Muslim militias, and Sunni tribal fighters, backed by U.S.-led coalition forces, have recaptured several cities in the past year, including Ramadi, Tikrit, and Baiji from a severely weakened Islamic State, whose source of funds was ended when Russian airborne sorties took out key oil infrastructure choke points.
Sensing the rising weakness among the ISIS ranks, which despite horror stories meant to stem deserters from its army has so far failed to do so, the leader of one of the largest Shi'ite militias taking part in the operation alongside the Iraqi army said earlier today that the final battle to recapture the ISIS strongholder of Falluja, located near Baghdad, will start in "days, not weeks."
The first phase of the offensive that started on Monday is nearly finished, with the complete encirclement of the city that lies 50 km (32 miles) west of the capital, said Hadi al-Amiri, the leader of the Iranian-backed Badr Organization. Amiri, in military fatigues, spoke to state-TV from the operations area with Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi standing by his side, wearing the black uniform of Iraq's elite counter-terrorism force.
Amiri earlier this week said the Shi'ite paramilitary coalition known as Popular Mobilization will only take part in the encirclement operations, and let the army storm the city, a historic bastion of Sunni Muslim insurgency. Popular Mobilization would only go in the city if the army's attack fails, he said.
The spiritual leader of Iraq’s Shiites on Friday has called on Iraqi forces battling to retake the city of Fallujah from ISIS militants to protect civilians trapped there. “Saving innocent people from harm’s way is the most important thing, even more so than targeting the enemy,” the Associated Press quoted Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani as saying. His comments were delivered at Friday prayers by his representative Ahmed al-Safi in the holy city of Karbala.
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Curiously, it was here that a familiar to Zero Hedge readers face has re-emerged, that of Iran's notorious Qassem Soleimani, the head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps-Qods Force, the external operations wing of the Revolutionary Guards, who according to the Long War Journal was been spotted near Falluja.
As the military operation to dislodge the Islamic State from one of its last remaining strongholds in Anbar province continues, the in-demand Soleimani is reportedly helping direct operations for the plethora of Iranian-backed militias taking part in the fighting.
A picture of Soleimani in the “Falluja operations room” was posted to the Facebook account of Harakat al Nujaba (shown above). The militia’s leader, Akram al Kaabi, who is a US-designated terrorist, is also shown in the photo alongside Abu Mahdi al Muhandis. Muhandis is another US-designated terrorist and leads both Kata’ib Hezbollah (Hezbollah Brigades) and the umbrella Popular Mobilization Units.
Also pictured is Hadi al Amiri, the leader of the Badr Organization, another Iranian-backed militia. Amiri is closely tied to Iran and its Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, and to Qassem Soleimani. During the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, Badr fought on the side of the Iranians. Amiri is routinely photographed with Soleimani, and has been quoted as saying, “I love Qassem Soleimani! He is my dearest friend.”
The well-traveled Soleimani has been spotted numerous times in both Iraq and Syria helping direct Iranian-backed militias. In Iraq, this includes Tikrit, Samarra, and Jurf al Sakhar and a previous effort in Anbar province. In Syria, Soleimani has been spotting giving speeches to Hezbollah fighters in the coastal province of Latakia and has been seen with different militias in Aleppo. Soleimani was also photographed with militia fighters in southern Aleppo just last week.
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It is unknown whether Soleimani was involved, but moments ago US-led coalition air and artillery strikes have killed 70 ISIS fighters in Fallujah, including the militants’ leader in the Iraqi city, a military spokesman said Friday. Baghdad-based Colonel Steve Warren said that over the last four days, 20 strikes in the besieged city had destroyed ISIS fighting positions and gun emplacements.
Iraqi security forces celebrate as they hold an ISIS flag captured in Ramadi, 70 miles (115 kilometers) west of Baghdad, Iraq
"We’ve killed more than 70 enemy fighters, including Maher Al-Bilawi, who is the commander of ISIL forces in Falluja," Warren said, cited by Al Arabiya.
"This, of course, won’t completely cause the enemy to stop fighting, but it’s a blow. And it creates confusion and it causes the second-in-command to have to move up. It causes other leadership to have to move around," he added.
Between 500 and 1,000 ISIS fighters hold Fallujah, and about 50,000 civilians are trapped inside the city, with the jihadists trying to kill those who attempt to flee.
As of this moment, the fall of Fallujah and shortly thereafter Mosul, is likely just a matter of time.
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Meanwhile, as the offensive to recapture key Islamic State strongholds in Iraq escalates, the battle for Raqqa, the Islamic State's self-declared capital in Syria, has also begun.
As Startfor writes, the Syrian Democratic Forces are advancing toward the city, engaging the jihadist group in the villages of al-Hisha, Tal Samen and Mutamshirij along the way.
Because of Raqqa's strategic importance, the Islamic State will do everything in its power to keep the city within its grasp. Driving the militants from their stronghold will not be easy or cheap, but if the SDF is successful, it will greatly accelerate the Islamic State's defeat in Syria. For the Islamic State, the loss of Raqqa would be a devastating blow.
The city has symbolic value as the capital of the group's so-called caliphate; it is also an important hub for transporting people and supplies. Raqqa sits on the Euphrates River and is the key to controlling several critical highways in Syria. Without it, the Islamic State would have a much harder time moving fighters and goods from Aleppo province to eastern Syria and beyond. Instead it would be forced to rely on the Resafa-Ash Shola road, which is increasingly threatened by the Syrian government's advances toward Deir el-Zour.
Given the city's significance to Islamic State operations in Syria, the group can be expected to funnel substantial resources and reinforcements toward its defense. In addition to sending more fighters to Raqqa, the Islamic State will likely launch counterattacks along the SDF's other front lines, including al-Hasaka, in an effort to distract its foe. However, the Islamic State will be at a disadvantage: While the SDF is focusing most of its attention on attacking the jihadist group, the Islamic State has to contend with the Syrian rebels, Syrian government troops, Kurdish peshmerga and Iraqi forces. Devoting additional attention and resources to Raqqa when it is already overstretched will inevitably hurt the extremist group elsewhere on the battlefield.
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Ultimately, with little funding left, with little US, Saudi and Turkish support available, and with little strategic relevance for ISIS now that Assad's government is once again safe, the entire point behind the sudden and dramatic emergence of ISIS is gone. Expect ISIS to quietly disappear as its territory is regained by Iraq and Syria respectively, with just the occasional splinter group leftover to source terrorists that make their way into Europe for the occasional suicide bombing, meant to keep Europeans on their toes.