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Mapped: Recession Risk by State in 2025

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Mapped: Recession Risk by State in 2025

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Key Takeaways

  • As of October, 23 U.S. states face high recession risk, or are already in recession.
  • By contrast, 16 states, including Texas and Kentucky, are expanding based on analysis from Moody’s.

U.S. GDP is made up of many smaller, distinct state economies fueling national growth.

In 2025, states responsible for about a third of U.S. GDP are in recession, or face high recession risk. Another third are expanding, including Florida and Utah, based on payrolls, employment, and other key economic data.

This graphic shows recession risk by state in 2025, based on analysis from Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.

Where Recession Risk is Highest in America

To analyze recession risk, Zandi looks at state-level economic activity. This included a range of data such as unemployment, building permits, retail sales, industrial activity, delinquency rates, and tax revenues.

States were then categorized into three buckets based on these factors as of October 2025:

  • In Recession/High Risk
  • Treading Water
  • Expanding
State/District Business Cycle Status Share of U.S. GDP (%)
Georgia In Recession/High Risk 3.03
Montana In Recession/High Risk 0.25
Wyoming In Recession/High Risk 0.18
Michigan In Recession/High Risk 2.44
Massachusetts In Recession/High Risk 2.73
Mississippi In Recession/High Risk 0.53
Minnesota In Recession/High Risk 1.70
Kansas In Recession/High Risk 0.80
Rhode Island In Recession/High Risk 0.28
Delaware In Recession/High Risk 0.34
Washington In Recession/High Risk 3.02
Illinois In Recession/High Risk 3.85
West Virginia In Recession/High Risk 0.36
New Hampshire In Recession/High Risk 0.42
Maryland In Recession/High Risk 1.86
Virginia In Recession/High Risk 2.66
South Dakota In Recession/High Risk 0.25
Connecticut In Recession/High Risk 1.27
Oregon In Recession/High Risk 1.14
Iowa In Recession/High Risk 0.86
New Jersey In Recession/High Risk 2.93
Maine In Recession/High Risk 0.33
District of Columbia In Recession/High Risk 0.64
Missouri Treading Water 1.54
Ohio Treading Water 3.14
Hawaii Treading Water 0.39
Arkansas Treading Water 0.65
New Mexico Treading Water 0.49
Tennessee Treading Water 1.87
New York Treading Water 7.92
Vermont Treading Water 0.16
Alaska Treading Water 0.24
Colorado Treading Water 1.92
California Treading Water 14.50
Nevada Treading Water 0.86
South Carolina Expanding 1.18
Texas Expanding 9.41
Oklahoma Expanding 0.92
Idaho Expanding 0.43
Kentucky Expanding 0.99
Alabama Expanding 1.10
Indiana Expanding 1.81
Nebraska Expanding 0.63
North Carolina Expanding 2.86
Louisiana Expanding 1.11
Florida Expanding 5.78
North Dakota Expanding 0.26
Pennsylvania Expanding 3.54
Arizona Expanding 1.88
Wisconsin Expanding 1.53
Utah Expanding 1.02

Currently, many coastal, Northeastern states are facing some of the worst economic conditions.

In Maine, for instance, year-over-year GDP growth is just 0.8% as of Q2 2025, compared to the U.S. average of 2.1%. Meanwhile, Washington, D.C.’s unemployment rate was 6.4% in July, significantly higher than the 4.6% U.S. average given sweeping federal cuts.

According to Zandi’s analysis, New York and California are “Treading Water”, together responsible for driving over 22% of U.S. GDP.

In comparison, Texas, which fuels 9.4% of U.S. economic growth is expanding. Unemployment rates of 4.0% in July remain below the U.S. average. Additionally, the Texas economy is growing faster than the nation, while income growth rose 6.3% annually as of Q2 2025, outpacing the national average.

Learn More on the Voronoi App

To learn more about this topic, check out this graphic on unemployment by state in 2025.

Source
America
United States