Where Will Food Prices Rise and Fall the Most?
Key Takeaways
- Iran’s food prices are projected to surge 114.4%, more than triple Argentina’s 34.0% increase.
- Europe accounts for 11 countries projected to see falling food prices, led by Sweden (−5.7%).
- U.S. food prices are forecast to rise 2.0%, though higher energy and fertilizer costs pose risks.
The Iran war threatens to turn an energy crisis into a food crisis. Rising fuel, fertilizer, and shipping costs could push grocery bills higher worldwide, even as some countries are projected to see food prices fall.
This graphic ranks projected food price changes over the next 12 months, based on UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) data as of October 15, 2026.
Where Food Prices Are Rising the Most
Iran leads the ranking by a wide margin, with food prices projected to more than double over the next 12 months. Elsewhere, conflict, currency weakness, and high import costs are contributing to some of the steepest increases.
| Country | Projected 12-Month Change (Oct 2026) |
|---|---|
| Iran | 114.4% |
| Argentina | 34.0% |
| Rwanda | 29.1% |
| Türkiye | 24.2% |
| Nigeria | 23.5% |
| Lebanon | 20.7% |
| Mongolia | 20.2% |
| Libya | 18.9% |
| Qatar | 14.0% |
| Madagascar | 13.5% |
| Ethiopia | 12.1% |
| Mali | 11.7% |
| Malawi | 11.5% |
| Kenya | 10.5% |
| Kyrgyzstan | 10.3% |
| Jamaica | 10.0% |
| Tunisia | 9.6% |
| Sri Lanka | 9.6% |
| Afghanistan | 9.5% |
Iran’s food inflation was already running at 98% in February 2026, highlighting the severe price pressures facing households even before the Middle East conflict intensified. Elsewhere in the region, food prices are projected to rise 20.7% in Lebanon and 14.0% in Qatar.
The war is also driving up agricultural costs worldwide. Average fertilizer prices are forecast to rise more than 30% in 2026, increasing the cost of growing crops and potentially pushing grocery prices higher.
The U.S. faces a comparatively modest increase, though higher fertilizer and transportation costs could still push food inflation above expectations.
Where Food Prices Are Falling the Most
While households in many countries face rising grocery bills, parts of Europe are projected to see relief. Sweden (-5.7%), Latvia (-5.3%), and Denmark (-1.7%) are among the countries expected to see prices decline.
| Country | Projected 12-Month Change (Oct 2026) |
|---|---|
| Vanuatu | -8.0% |
| Cameroon | -7.3% |
| Sweden | -5.7% |
| Latvia | -5.3% |
| Czechia | -4.3% |
| Hungary | -4.0% |
| Netherlands | -1.8% |
| Denmark | -1.7% |
| Slovakia | -1.6% |
| China | -1.6% |
| Lithuania | -1.3% |
| Costa Rica | -1.1% |
| Slovenia | -1.0% |
| Morocco | -0.8% |
| Switzerland | -0.4% |
| Ecuador | -0.3% |
| Belgium | -0.3% |
| Paraguay | -0.2% |
| Greece | -0.1% |
Lower agricultural prices could help explain Europe’s outlook. In Q2 2026, prices received by EU farmers fell 5.8% year over year, including declines for milk (−16.6%) and cereals (−5.6%).
However, farmers are also facing higher production costs. Energy costs rose 22.0% over the same period, while fertilizer prices climbed 13.4%, potentially limiting how much of the savings reach consumers.
Even where food prices are projected to fall, groceries are unlikely to feel cheap. Across the euro area, food prices remain roughly 30% higher than at the end of 2021, with increases ranging from about 24% in Finland to 48% in Estonia. Modest price declines would therefore provide some relief without reversing years of rising costs.
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To learn more about this topic, check out this graphic showing the countries where eating out costs the most and least.