Going into the Iowa caucuses, Donald Trump was riding high.
The brazen billionaire was not only the clear frontrunner for the GOP presidential nomination, he had also managed to pull ahead of his closest rival, senator Ted Cruz, in Iowa for the first time since August.
Make no mistake, nine months ago the idea that Trump could be competitive in Iowa was laughable. But the only one laughing going into the caucus was Trump.
And then, something went wrong.
Perhaps it was the publicity stunt Trump pulled last Thursday when he skipped the final debate before the caucus in order to hold his own, competing event right up the street, or perhaps some voters lost their nerve at the last minute, but whatever the case, the man who “hates losers” lost.
Initially, Trump showed a rare bit of humility. “I’d like to congratulate Ted,” he said, before saying he was “just honored” to have been competitive.
Humble Trump quickly receded back into the blonde hair piece however, once Trump discovered that Cruz may have sent out “deceitful mailers.” “Ted Cruz didn’t win Iowa, he stole it,” Trump tweeted on Wednesday.
Ted Cruz didn't win Iowa, he stole it. That is why all of the polls were so wrong and why he got far more votes than anticipated. Bad!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) February 3, 2016
Maybe so, but the latest national poll conducted by PPP shows that although Trump is still the frontrunner, he fell nine points after losing in Iowa. His lead over Ted Cruz in the national poll has narrowed to just 4 points.
"PPP’s newest national poll finds the race on the Republican side tightening considerably in the wake of Donald Trump’s surprise loss in Iowa on Monday night. Trump’s lead has fallen to just 4 points- he’s at 25% to 21% each for Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, and 11% for Ben Carson," Public Policy Polling said on Thursday.
As PPP goes on to note Marco Rubio may be set to make a run at the top spot. "Rubio is the candidate with the real momentum in the race," PPP remarks, adding that "he’s up 8 points from his 13% standing in a poll right before Christmas." Here's more:
Beyond that he’s seen a large spike in his favorability rating- it’s improved a net 28 points from +15 at 49/34 to +43 at 64/21. That ties him with Ben Carson as being the most broadly popular candidate on the Republican side.
Things also bode well for Rubio as the field gets smaller in the coming weeks. In a four candidate field he gets 32% to 31% for Trump, 23% for Cruz, and 8% for Bush. In a three candidate field he gets 34% to 33% for Trump and 25% for Cruz. And in head to heads he leads both Trump (52/40) and Cruz (46/40). As other candidates drop out of the race Rubio is the most likely destination of their supporters.
In other words, when this gets down to a three person race (and it will in fairly short order) Rubio will be ahead. If polls are to be believed.
PPP goes on to call the GOP race "very fluid," as fully half of would-be voters say they're open to changing their mind about the candidates between now and the ballot.
Can Trump reclaim the momentum in New Hampshire? Will Marco Rubio prevail in the end as voters decide that when it comes right down to it, they'd rather go mainstream than go out on a political limb? Stay tuned to find out.
Full results below
PPP Release National 20416
http://www.scribd.com/embeds/298045917/content