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Visualizing the Declining Birth Rate in Japan
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Japan’s birth rate has been declining over the last three decades. While Japan’s population was 123.3 million in 2023, it is expected to decrease by approximately 29.4% to 87.0 million by 2070.
In this graphic, we use data from Kyodo News, Statista, and Database.earth to illustrate the number of live births each year in Japan, compared to the number of annual deaths. Figures were rounded.
Population Shrunk by Largest Margin Ever in 2023
Declining births and increasing deaths resulted in Japan’s total population falling by 831,872 people in 2023.
| Year | Births | Deaths |
|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 1,029,817 | 1,376,554 |
| 2014 | 1,003,609 | 1,384,931 |
| 2015 | 1,005,721 | 1,405,072 |
| 2016 | 977,242 | 1,428,060 |
| 2017 | 946,146 | 1,463,873 |
| 2018 | 918,400 | 1,493,140 |
| 2019 | 865,239 | 1,519,227 |
| 2020 | 840,835 | 1,511,209 |
| 2021 | 811,622 | 1,574,533 |
| 2022 | 770,759 | 1,567,933 |
| 2023 | 758,631 | 1,574,865 |
The National Institute of Population and Social Security Research once estimated that births would decline to below 760,000 in 2035.
With births in 2023 recorded at 758,631, this forecast was off by over 10 years.
Meanwhile, the number of deaths has increased over the last 10 years, surpassing 1.5 million in 2023, equivalent to 1.22% of the population.
Many younger Japanese hesitate to marry or start families due to bleak job prospects, corporate cultures unsupportive of working parents—especially women—and a lack of public tolerance for small children, as reported by the Associated Press. Rising costs also contribute to couples’ reluctance to have children.
The average number of children a woman gives birth to in her lifetime in Japan hit 1.26 in 2022. The fertility rate is far below the replacement rate of 2.1 considered necessary to maintain a population without immigration.
One of the biggest concerns is that a shrinking and aging population can have significant implications for the economy and national security.
As a result, Japan’s government is taking steps to cope with the declining birthrate, such as expanding childcare and promoting wage hikes for younger workers.
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