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Why It Was So Important For The S&P To Close Above 1950

Today's OMFG face-ripping, short-squeezing, broken-bond-market-buying ramp was crucial for many chart-watchers.

The S&P 500's close above 1950 (or more accurately, above recent highs and back above the all-important 50-day moving-average) provides hopeful confirmation that the uptrend off the Dimon Bottom will continue (as BofA's Stephen Suttmeier recently noted) following the same 'W' shape recovery seen in Q3/4 2015.

For many, hope is that we extend higher after today's all important break of the 50DMA...

 

However, we have seen this pattern on a bigger scale before... and it did not end well.

What happens next?

 

"Hope" is a strategy in today's new normal... especially if The NY Fed can break the bond market again tomorrow.

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As we noted earlier, there are a few reasons to be question this bounce in stocks...

Capital Structure says "No" US FINL vs Credit...

Carry Trade says "No" - US Stocks vs Yuan...

 

Inflation Expectations says "No" - EU Stoxx vs Inflation...

 

Bonds say no "No" - US Stocks vs TSY Curve...