Always...
As Bloomberg summarizes, the dollar rose, Treasuries sank and all three broad stock indexes are heading for a record close on bets a budget compromise will bring Washington closer to agreeing on Trump’s promise of tax reform. The dollar touched a three-month high and 10-year Treasury yields approached 2.4% while the Canadian dollar tumbled after inflation and retail sales missed estimates. Some clarity on a budget resolution, a good quarter of earnings and the anticipation of an announcement of the next Fed chair has led to market confidence. One stock clearly bucked the earnings trend; GE posted results before the bell, missing analysts’ estimates significantly and slashing its profit forecast. The stock erased losses after falling 7% in premarket trading.
So - GE did this...
GE now 1% above yesterday's close after abysmal earnings, cutting guidance by 30% and “horrible cash flow”
And The Dow did this...
Which pushes it to the most overbought (based on RSI) since July 1955...
The Dow has not been near 'oversold' since Jan 2015...
Another perfect week (5 up days) for the S&P 500 (making 4 in 2017, compared to 1 in 2016, 2 in '14, 2 in '13, 2 in '12, and 2 in '11)
VIX ended back below 10 (after briefly spiking above 11.6 yesterday)...
and then this happened right at the close...
Homebuilders soared today... due to fun-durr-mentals...
Bank stocks underperformed today - but still have a long way top go to catch down to the crash in the yield curve..
Uglyish week for FANG stocks and AAPL ended red...
TSLA Tanked Today...
Following last night's budget vote, tax-hope picked up again from recent lows...
Yields are higher on the day (and week) with the short-end continuing to underperform...
The yield curve continued to collapse this week - lowest weekly close for 5s30s since Nov 2007
Copper/Gold is at its highest in 3 years suggesting bond yields have a lot further to rise...
The Dollar Index soared today after last night's budget vote - this is the best day for the dollar in 9 months... after bouncing perfectly off the unchanged for the week level...
The Dollar is up 5 of the 6 weeks - highest weekly close in 3 months
Yen and Loonie (retail sales weakness) were the biggest losers this week sending the green back higher...
Dollar strength weighed on precious metals with copper best on the week and WTI managing to limp into the green for the week today...
Finally, Bitcoin soared today (on Zimbabwe panic) above $6000 for the first time ever...
Now bigger than Goldman Sachs...
So who is right?