Following a rerun of September 2015, when Draghi sent market expectations about ECB action sky-high only to massively disappoint in December (we will have to wait until March to see if it is deja vu all over again) last week, this week is just as big for central bank jawboning with the FOMC (Wednesday) and the BoJ meeting on Friday, with hopes that they will at least hint of more easing if not actually do much.
As DB's Jim Reid summarized, "it feels unlikely they will be negative events for the market even if there is no actual hard signs of a Fed relent or fresh stimulus this month from Kuroda. As a minimum we should hear hints of more dovish soundbites relative to their last meetings."
Here are the key events in the coming week, courtesy of Deutsche Bank:
- There’s no shortage of important data releases, central bank meetings and corporate earnings results this week. We kick off this morning in Europe with the German IFO survey and UK CBI orders data while in the US this afternoon the Dallas Fed manufacturing activity print is due.
- There’s no data of note in Europe on Tuesday but its set to be a busy day in the US with the FHFA house price index and S&P/Case-Shiller home price index data due, the flash January services and composite PMI’s, consumer confidence and finally the Richmond Fed manufacturing activity index.
- Early on Wednesday we get the only data of the week out of China with December industrial profits data and the January consumer sentiment reading. In Europe on Wednesday we will see consumer confidence readings from Italy, Germany and France. In the US new home sales data for December is due before the conclusion of the FOMC meeting later in the evening.
- Turning to Thursday in Europe we’ll get the final January consumer confidence data for the Euro area. In Germany we’ll see the preliminary January CPI report along with the advance Q4 GDP report for the UK. In the US it’s all about the preliminary durable and capital goods orders data for December, while pending home sales and initial jobless claims data is also expected.
- We close out the week in Asia on Thursday with a bumper set of data from Japan including CPI, employment indicators, industrial production and housing starts. If that wasn’t enough we’ll also get the BoJ meeting. The European session will be focused on the Euro area CPI report, while we’ll also get inflation and GDP data from France. Any hopes for a quiet end to the week in the US will be in vain with the advance Q4 GDP report due (expectations for +0.8%) along with the advance goods trade balance, core PCE, employment cost index, Chicago PMI and University of Michigan consumer sentiment print.
For those who prefer table format summaries, here it is from BofA...
... and Citi:
Source: DB, BofA, Citi