The final Des Moines Register poll was released over the weekend, showing Trump slightly ahead of Cruz (28-23%) and Clinton barely ahead of Sanders (45-42%). Trump and Clinton have gained ground over the last month:
Ann Selzer, whose firm conducts the polls, told me before the poll was released that the late momentum usually matters as much as the top-line results. That appears to have gone in Clinton’s and Trump’s favor. Both added supporters in January while their main rivals, Bernie Sanders and Ted Cruz respectively, lost some.
As Cruz has been passed by Trump, he has looked for another way to shore up his position besides attacking the front-runner. In the closing days of the contest, Cruz has directed his attacks against Rubio instead. Though the Rubio campaign wanted to spin these attacks as proof of “Marcomentum,” the poll found no evidence that Rubio was enjoying a late surge:
Support for Rubio, who has emerged as the leading establishment candidate, remained flat as the caucuses near. In fact, over the four days of the survey, his support dropped the last two days.
The thinking behind Cruz’s targeting of Rubio was that many of Rubio’s supporters are not firmly committed to backing him and could switch to another candidate. Rubio’s support is the softest of the top three Republicans:
A whopping 71 percent of Trump’s supporters say they’re certain they’ll vote for him, compared to just 29 percent who may yet switch, the Iowa Poll found. Among Rubio’s supporters, 47 percent were committed while 53 percent said they may switch to another candidate.
Cruz is the most likely to benefit if the Floridian’s supporters switch to another candidate, as Cruz is the second-choice preference of most of them. Cruz is reputed to have the best organization in Iowa, so he is better-positioned to poach uncertain supporters of other candidates than any of his rivals. I assume Cruz will outperform the 23% he received in the last poll, while I suspect Rubio will not quite get his 15% in part because he’ll lose some supporters to Cruz during the caucuses. My guess is that Trump has enough of an edge to hold off Cruz, but the final result will be close enough that it shouldn’t do too much damage to Cruz’s prospects elsewhere.
Predictions: Trump 31% Cruz 28% Rubio 13% Carson 9% Paul 7%
Clinton 49% Sanders 48% O’Malley 3%