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The Real "Death Cross" Of Oil Markets

The 'death cross' of these two energy market indicators is all one needs to know about the oil market...

 

As Bloomberg notes, total industry oil stocks reported by the International Energy Agency rose for a third month, increasing by 0.5 percent to the highest on record at 2.99 billion barrels.

China’s Beige Book, released last week, showed further economic deterioration in one of the world’s largest commodity-consuming nations in the fourth quarter.

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The Federal Reserve Will Hand Out $11 Billion In Riskless "Profits" To Foreign Banks In 2016

As a result of the Fed's balance sheet expanding to $4.5 trillion over the past 7 years, the most direct consequence has been the increase in excess reserves held at various banks to just over $2.5 trillion. This, as we have shown before using the Fed's H.8 data, means that cash held by various commercial banks has risen proportionately, and as shown in the chart below, there has been a direct correlation between the amount of excess reserves in the system (shown by the black line) and bank cash holdings.

 

The BoJ Just Promised To Buy $2.5 Billion In Make-Believe ETFs: What It Means For Japanese Corporates

When it comes to central bankers gone “full Krugman” (as it were) you’d be hard pressed to find someone more Keynesian crazy than BoJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda. 

Kuroda - who earlier this year likened himself to Peter Pan on the way to explaining that it’s possible to conduct unconventional monetary policy in perpetuity as long as market participants continue to “believe” - has not only managed to suck up the entirety of gross JGB issuance, he’s also succeeded in cornering the market for Japanese ETFs. 

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