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Wholesale Trade Data Suggest Manufacturing Recession Spreading To Entire Economy

Wholesale Trade Data Suggest Manufacturing Recession Spreading To Entire Economy

The good news - wholesale inventories are being worked off (falling 0.3% MoM in November - biggest drop since May 2013). The bad news - inventories are being worked off (crushing Q4 GDP hopes and Fed forecasts). The ugly news - Wholesale sales collapsed 1.0% MoM - the biggest drop in a year (leaving the spread between sales and inventories at a record high).

The Technical Damage From the Last Week Has Been Severe

Stocks are rallying into the open. However, the technical damage of the last week has been severe.

 

The S&P 500 crashed through its trendline (blue line). It also crashed through critical support established by the bounces in September and October (green line).

 

 

We might get a bounce here to retest that green line, but unless a major Central Bank launches a new monetary program stocks are heading DOWN.

 

December Jobs Soar by 292K, Smash Expectations But Average Wages Post First Drop Since 2014

As we noted in the jobs preview, only a super strong number had any chance of prompting a market reaction, and sure enough, the just announced December print of +292,000 smashed expectations of +200K, surging from last month's upward revised 252K, while October was revised to a massive 307,000, a net addition of 50K over the last two months.

 

So time for another rate hike, right?

RBS: "This Is Simply The Worst Week We Had In Recent History... After Too Much Policy Kool-aid"

RBS: "This Is Simply The Worst Week We Had In Recent History... After Too Much Policy Kool-aid"

This week is simply the worst we had in recent history for markets, RBS exclaims, the worst ever start to the year for The Dow, the worst since 1999 for S&P and the second-worst for credit since 2008. Worst still is, they think there’s more weakness ahead and that many fundamental risks will continue to haunt markets. Why? Simple! Investors drank too much policy kool-aid last year.

Worst ever start to a year...

 

 

And worst week for equity and credit markets in recent history...

 

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