Via ConvergEx's Nick Colas,
Today we engage in a simple thought experiment: what 3 pieces of information would you need to confidently call the 2016 end-of-year level on the S&P 500?
A brief survey of senior Convergex traders yielded this list: year-end worldwide central bank rates, Chinese GDP growth in 2016, actual 2016 US corporate earnings, the winner of the U.S. presidential race, and the pace of increases in the Fed Funds rate for the year.
As global stock markets have soared in recent weeks, accelerating most recently after the dud of the G-20 meeting, gold has also rallied, strongly suggesting there is anything but confidence in this ramp.
So Gold Is Screaming, but as ConvergEx's Nick Colas asks, What Is It Saying?
Gold is up 19% so far in 2016, with prices making new one-year highs just in the past week. That shouldn’t be happening.
Via ConvergEx's Nicholas Colas,
With yesterday’s impressive equity rally, every trader is asking the same question: “Can U.S. equities go green on the year?” The S&P 500 is now down “just” 3.2% in 2016 and there’s nothing like a +2% one-day rally to hold out hope of actual gains before March 31.
The move in gold, up 17% year to date, is important, according to ConvergEx's Nick Colas...
We’ll be blunt: most financial asset investors really hate gold.
Anything – even leaving money in the bank – is better than owning gold since at least society has access to your capital through the banking system. Once you buy physical gold, no one has access to that sliver of your portfolio.