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Visualizing the World’s Plummeting Fertility Rate

Visualizing the World’s Plummeting Fertility Rate

At the dawn of the 19th century, the world population hit a big milestone: 1 billion people.

Over the next 220 years, the number grew to eight times that, or the 8 billion people who live on the planet today, with half of the growth occurring since 1975.

This continuous climb in global population has been possible thanks to advancements in healthcare and nutrition. However, the UN forecasts that rapid growth will slow down—and may even stop entirely by 2100—because of falling fertility rates.

What does that mean for modern nation states conditioned to expect a constant influx of new citizens and labor to power their economies? And how can those changing economies adapt to a shrinking population?

To understand that, we need to first untangle fertility rates, and why they’re falling.

Explained: Fertility and Replacement Rates

The total fertility rate is the average number of births per woman over a lifetime. This measurement makes two key assumptions, however:

  • The woman will live to the end of her childbearing years
  • The woman will bear children according to the age-specific fertility rates currently observed

Both assumptions add some uncertainty to future fertility rate projections. However, decades of past data collected by the World Bank help show some overall trends around the world, and in many countries.

The age-specific fertility rate (ASFR) “measures the annual number of births to women of a specified age or age group per 1,000 women in that age group,” according to the UN.

The world fertility rate (expressed as the number of children per woman) has been falling steadily since the 1970s.

In 2020, the world’s fertility rate stood at 2.3, slightly above the replacement rate of 2.1 births per woman, which allows for one generation to replace itself. This is down more than two times from 4.7 in 1960.

But the world’s average hides the vast disparities between the fertility rate of countries. We dive into the differences below.

Which Country has the Highest Fertility Rate?

According to the UN, nearly two-thirds of the world’s population lives in a region where the fertility rate is below the critical 2.1 threshold. In the table below, countries are ranked from the highest to lowest average births per woman in 2020.

Rank Country Name 1960 1975 1990 2005 2020
1 Niger 7.53 7.54 7.81 7.62 6.89
2 Somalia 7.25 7.03 7.44 7.48 6.42
3 Chad 6.25 6.88 7.22 7.13 6.35
4 Dem. Rep. of Congo 6.08 6.42 6.70 6.60 6.21
5 Mali 7.00 7.24 7.25 6.72 6.04
6 Central African Republic 5.81 5.89 6.05 5.85 5.99
7 Angola 6.71 7.49 7.27 6.46 5.37
8 Nigeria 6.36 6.77 6.46 6.07 5.31
9 Burundi 7.00 7.24 7.37 6.71 5.18
10 Benin 6.28 6.85 6.73 5.68 5.05
11 Burkina Faso 6.25 6.91 7.01 6.18 4.87
12 Tanzania 6.73 7.00 6.20 5.61 4.80
13 Gambia 6.25 6.41 6.22 5.72 4.78
14 Afghanistan 7.28 7.54 7.57 6.91 4.75
15 Mozambique 6.32 6.69 6.22 5.61 4.71
16 Uganda 6.94 7.23 7.04 6.57 4.69
17 Cameroon 5.65 6.39 6.39 5.41 4.54
18 South Sudan 6.72 6.92 7.99 6.17 4.54
19 Sudan 6.65 6.93 6.17 5.04 4.54
20 Guinea 6.11 6.37 6.63 5.70 4.49
21 Cote d'Ivoire 7.69 7.91 6.73 5.46 4.47
22 Mauritania 6.35 6.68 6.06 5.19 4.46
23 Senegal 7.00 7.25 6.40 5.19 4.45
24 Zambia 7.12 7.39 6.53 5.71 4.38
25 Equatorial Guinea 5.65 5.79 5.99 5.56 4.35
26 Togo 6.72 7.15 6.13 5.07 4.32
27 Ethiopia 6.88 7.14 7.24 5.97 4.24
28 Rep. of Congo 6.09 6.36 5.21 4.66 4.23
29 Liberia 6.39 6.74 6.37 5.52 4.17
30 Guinea-Bissau 5.92 6.15 6.51 5.45 4.09
31 Sierra Leone 6.18 6.55 6.57 5.81 4.08
32 Comoros 6.79 7.12 6.50 5.03 4.05
33 Solomon Islands 6.97 7.07 5.66 4.48 4.04
34 Samoa 7.65 6.68 4.93 4.37 4.00
35 Malawi 7.03 7.40 6.81 5.91 4.00
36 Eritrea 6.48 6.59 6.34 4.93 3.93
37 Madagascar 7.30 7.10 6.16 5.10 3.92
38 Sao Tome & Principe 6.24 6.53 5.83 4.96 3.89
39 Yemen 7.94 8.40 8.61 5.58 3.89
40 Rwanda 8.19 8.22 6.87 5.44 3.87
41 Vanuatu 6.86 6.09 5.03 4.16 3.78
42 Ghana 6.85 6.77 5.71 4.54 3.62
43 West Bank & Gaza NA NA 6.78 4.84 3.57
44 Pakistan 6.80 6.81 6.36 4.64 3.56
45 Iraq 5.30 6.88 5.88 4.48 3.55
46 Gabon 4.42 5.39 5.46 4.21 3.55
47 Zimbabwe 7.22 6.98 4.87 3.67 3.55
48 Kenya 7.63 7.88 6.13 4.78 3.40
49 Namibia 6.21 6.54 5.32 3.56 3.35
50 Kiribati 6.55 5.03 4.64 3.80 3.33
51 Papua New Guinea 6.02 6.07 5.18 4.22 3.27
52 Tonga 6.89 5.43 4.64 4.18 3.27
53 Timor-Leste 6.32 5.19 5.81 5.71 3.25
54 Tajikistan 6.55 6.60 5.34 3.44 3.24
55 Tuvalu 4.78 3.50 3.91 3.63 3.19
56 Kazakhstan 4.53 3.39 2.72 2.22 3.13
57 Lesotho 5.82 5.90 4.76 3.44 3.05
58 Kyrgyzstan 5.38 4.66 3.63 2.50 3.00
59 Egypt 6.79 5.80 4.48 3.15 2.96
60 Algeria 7.50 7.37 4.56 2.56 2.94
61 Israel 3.87 3.55 2.82 2.84 2.90
62 Mongolia 6.83 7.13 4.23 2.03 2.90
63 Uzbekistan 6.61 5.89 4.07 2.36 2.90
64 Eswatini 6.75 6.75 5.25 3.68 2.89
65 Jordan 7.67 7.89 5.48 3.78 2.87
66 Haiti 6.21 5.69 5.48 3.83 2.87
67 Djibouti 6.83 6.77 5.98 3.99 2.85
68 Botswana 6.63 6.58 4.49 3.08 2.84
69 Syria 7.49 7.47 5.38 3.81 2.80
70 Philippines 7.15 5.60 4.35 3.49 2.78
71 Micronesia 6.69 6.68 4.96 3.60 2.75
72 Turkmenistan 6.59 5.90 4.24 2.66 2.70
73 Oman 7.25 7.75 6.61 3.05 2.69
74 Bolivia 6.36 5.79 4.89 3.56 2.65
75 Guam 5.91 3.91 3.05 2.76 2.59
76 Lao 6.29 6.29 6.08 3.67 2.54
77 Libya 7.37 7.96 4.97 2.77 2.51
78 Paraguay 6.50 5.21 4.55 3.04 2.50
79 Fiji 6.46 4.10 3.41 2.89 2.50
80 Guatemala 6.96 6.41 5.48 3.97 2.48
81 Saudi Arabia 7.63 7.37 5.83 3.24 2.47
82 Guyana 6.37 4.50 3.07 2.84 2.42
83 South Africa 6.16 5.19 3.72 2.51 2.40
84 Honduras 7.46 6.86 5.29 3.55 2.39
85 Cambodia 6.25 4.10 5.64 3.24 2.38
86 Suriname 6.61 4.73 3.27 2.75 2.37
87 Morocco 7.04 6.27 4.02 2.57 2.35
88 Nicaragua 7.16 6.50 4.60 2.77 2.35
89 Panama 5.84 4.42 3.10 2.67 2.34
90 Dominican Republic 7.56 5.24 3.41 2.61 2.30
91 Faroe Islands NA 2.90 2.80 2.60 2.30
92 World 4.70 4.08 3.31 2.60 2.30
93 Seychelles NA NA NA 2.20 2.29
94 Venezuela, RB 6.36 4.69 3.45 2.63 2.23
95 Peru 6.94 5.71 3.91 2.69 2.22
96 Indonesia 5.55 5.04 3.10 2.43 2.19
97 Myanmar 5.98 5.29 3.54 2.55 2.17
98 Kuwait 7.16 6.09 3.32 2.66 2.14
99 Tunisia 6.94 6.03 3.47 1.98 2.11
100 Lebanon 5.82 4.56 3.30 2.20 2.10
101 Nepal 6.03 5.75 5.21 3.14 2.06
102 Ecuador 6.72 5.43 3.74 2.80 2.05
103 India 5.92 5.20 4.05 2.96 2.05
104 New Caledonia 6.28 3.70 3.18 2.20 2.04
105 Virgin Islands 5.45 3.63 2.99 2.24 2.03
106 Grenada 6.74 4.02 3.49 2.34 2.02
107 Greenland NA 2.35 2.44 2.38 2.02
108 Bangladesh 6.78 6.74 4.48 2.81 2.00
109 Sri Lanka 5.47 3.79 2.52 2.28 2.00
110 Belize 6.50 6.28 4.70 3.13 2.00
111 Georgia 2.94 2.53 2.31 1.61 1.97
112 Vietnam 6.28 5.64 3.60 1.96 1.96
113 Turkiye 6.38 5.07 3.13 2.22 1.92
114 Argentina 3.08 3.30 3.03 2.43 1.91
115 Cabo Verde 6.89 6.77 5.39 2.93 1.91
116 Mexico 6.76 5.79 3.45 2.50 1.91
117 Gibraltar 3.01 2.62 2.44 1.70 1.86
118 Bahrain 7.15 5.62 3.76 2.62 1.83
119 France 2.85 2.09 1.77 1.94 1.83
120 El Salvador 6.63 5.68 3.95 2.46 1.82
121 Malaysia 6.41 4.52 3.37 2.33 1.82
122 North Korea 3.57 3.05 2.35 1.96 1.82
123 Qatar 6.65 6.10 4.18 2.58 1.82
124 St. Vincent & the Grenadines 7.29 4.98 2.83 2.07 1.81
125 Brunei Darussalam 6.84 4.99 3.29 2.02 1.80
126 Moldova 3.33 2.53 2.39 1.53 1.77
127 Montenegro 3.50 2.40 1.94 1.69 1.75
128 Colombia 6.74 4.40 3.08 2.26 1.74
129 Iceland 4.29 2.65 2.30 2.05 1.72
130 Maldives 6.80 7.19 6.09 2.24 1.71
131 Czechia 2.09 2.43 1.90 1.29 1.71
132 Iran 7.30 6.01 4.86 1.78 1.71
133 French Polynesia 5.89 4.71 3.44 2.19 1.71
134 Azerbaijan 5.88 4.18 2.74 2.00 1.70
135 Denmark 2.57 1.92 1.67 1.80 1.67
136 Sweden 2.17 1.77 2.13 1.77 1.66
137 Brazil 6.06 4.42 2.91 1.97 1.65
138 U.S. 3.65 1.77 2.08 2.06 1.64
139 Trinidad and Tobago 5.35 3.24 2.38 1.68 1.63
140 Ireland 3.78 3.37 2.11 1.86 1.63
141 Barbados 4.33 2.39 1.74 1.79 1.63
142 New Zealand 4.24 2.33 2.18 1.97 1.61
143 Curacao NA NA NA NA 1.60
144 Romania 2.34 2.59 1.83 1.40 1.60
145 Slovenia 2.19 2.18 1.46 1.26 1.60
146 Australia 3.45 2.15 1.90 1.81 1.58
147 Estonia 1.98 2.04 2.05 1.52 1.58
148 Armenia 4.79 2.96 2.71 1.54 1.58
149 Slovak Republic 3.04 2.55 2.09 1.27 1.57
150 Antigua and Barbuda 4.60 2.77 2.25 1.83 1.57
151 Isle of Man 2.88 2.05 1.92 1.85 1.57
152 Bulgaria 2.31 2.23 1.82 1.37 1.56
153 United Kingdom 2.69 1.81 1.83 1.76 1.56
154 Hungary 2.02 2.35 1.87 1.31 1.56
155 Costa Rica 6.71 3.80 3.21 2.04 1.56
156 Belgium 2.54 1.74 1.62 1.76 1.55
157 Latvia 1.94 1.96 2.02 1.39 1.55
158 Netherlands 3.12 1.66 1.62 1.71 1.55
159 Chile 4.70 3.18 2.58 1.80 1.54
160 Germany 2.37 1.45 1.45 1.34 1.53
161 Kosovo 6.36 5.25 3.65 2.61 1.53
162 Russia 2.52 1.98 1.89 1.29 1.51
163 Cuba 4.13 2.85 1.80 1.47 1.50
164 Croatia 2.23 1.96 1.63 1.50 1.48
165 Lithuania 2.56 2.18 2.03 1.29 1.48
166 Norway 2.85 1.98 1.93 1.84 1.48
167 Serbia NA NA NA 1.45 1.48
168 Uruguay 2.83 3.02 2.43 2.10 1.48
169 U.A.E 6.72 6.26 4.54 2.20 1.46
170 Switzerland 2.44 1.61 1.58 1.42 1.46
171 Austria 2.69 1.83 1.46 1.41 1.44
172 Mauritius 6.17 3.20 2.32 1.88 1.44
173 Bhutan 6.70 6.62 5.60 2.80 1.43
174 St. Lucia 6.97 5.46 3.40 1.68 1.41
175 Albania 6.46 4.52 2.90 1.80 1.40
176 Canada 3.81 1.82 1.83 1.57 1.40
177 Portugal 3.16 2.75 1.56 1.41 1.40
178 Bahamas 4.82 3.26 2.53 2.05 1.39
179 Belarus 2.67 2.17 1.91 1.25 1.38
180 Poland 2.98 2.27 2.06 1.24 1.38
181 Finland 2.72 1.68 1.78 1.80 1.37
182 Luxembourg 2.29 1.55 1.60 1.63 1.37
183 Bosnia & Herzegovina 3.91 2.36 1.79 1.20 1.36
184 Jamaica 5.58 4.50 2.85 2.06 1.36
185 Thailand 6.25 4.40 2.09 1.59 1.34
186 Greece 2.23 2.33 1.39 1.34 1.34
187 Japan 2.00 1.91 1.54 1.26 1.34
188 Cyprus 3.51 2.11 2.41 1.48 1.33
189 Aruba 4.82 2.51 2.30 1.78 1.33
190 Bermuda NA NA NA 1.76 1.30
191 North Macedonia 3.97 2.59 2.19 1.50 1.30
192 China 4.45 3.57 2.51 1.62 1.28
193 Italy 2.40 2.17 1.33 1.34 1.24
194 Spain 2.86 2.77 1.36 1.33 1.23
195 Ukraine 2.24 2.02 1.85 1.21 1.22
196 Malta 3.62 2.27 2.02 1.38 1.13
197 Singapore 5.76 2.07 1.83 1.26 1.10
198 Macao SAR, China 4.93 1.60 1.74 0.83 1.07
199 British Virgin Islands 5.16 3.36 1.59 1.34 0.98
200 Puerto Rico 4.80 2.77 2.38 1.77 0.90
201 Hong Kong 5.07 2.67 1.27 0.96 0.87
202 South Korea 5.95 3.43 1.57 1.09 0.84

The African country of Niger currently has the highest fertility rate, at 6.9, which means on average, a woman in Niger will have seven children in her lifetime.

With the exception of Afghanistan (14th), all of the top 30 countries are found on the African continent. In fact, it’s estimated that Africa will add 2.5 billion new people by 2100, while most continents will actually flatline in terms of population growth.

At the bottom of the rankings, the country with the lowest fertility rate is South Korea, at 0.84.

Interestingly, many of the current most populous countries of the world—including China, India, and the U.S.—are all below replacement levels of fertility, with parts of Europe and North America having had persistently low fertility levels since the 1970s.

However, even the countries that currently have high fertility rates have seen a steep decline over the last 60 years. Why?

Why are Fertility Rates Falling All Over The World?

Declining fertility rates are a consequence of a confluence of many related factors, including (but not limited to):

  • Better access to contraception
  • Improving opportunities for women, outside of childbearing
  • Robust healthcare that lowers mortality rates of children

In the past, a larger number of children meant more chances of some making it to adulthood since infant mortality was so high. Women were also restricted to childbearing and rearing, and lacked access to contraception which led to increased—and sometimes unwanted—pregnancies.

Declining fertility rates are thus a triumph of improved socioeconomic development for many countries.

Consequences of Declining Fertility Rates

Although there are obvious issues with our large global population today, a different set of issues arise when fertility rates fall below replacement levels.

Dropping fertility rates can lead to shrinking populations and a higher ratio of the elderly to working adults—which will have unwanted economic consequences like increased healthcare costs and a reduced tax base.

Short-term solutions like immigration can help until populations are shrinking in every country. Longer-term solutions—reducing the cost of raising a child, and providing better support for families with children—are common strategies deployed to ward off demographic disaster.

The current crop of humanity has never had to contend with shrinking populations on a global scale. How will this reshape human livelihoods, priorities and expectations from life? We might soon find out.

Source: The World Bank.

Data note: The World Bank uses a number of sources to aggregate their data including the UN population division, Eurostat, and several national statistics programs. Data for some years is missing and has been marked as “NA.” Please visit their website for more information.

The post Visualizing the World’s Plummeting Fertility Rate appeared first on Visual Capitalist.

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