A Pessimists' Guide To 2017: When Everything That Can Go Wrong, Does Go Wrong
There’s a lot to be worried about going into 2017 both in terms of financial markets and in terms of geopolitical concerns.
There’s a lot to be worried about going into 2017 both in terms of financial markets and in terms of geopolitical concerns.
European and Asian markets rose, while U.S. index futures were little changed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average pushing for yet another record, as traders digested the Italian referendum news, await the ECB's Thursday announcement and reflect in a notably quieter overnight session. Oil slipped from a 16-month high after 4 straight days of gains, as doubts emerged about how OPEC will implement the first supply curbs in eight years. European bonds gained with stocks.
As BofA's rates strategist Ralf Preusser writes in a note this morning, "not even a month since the US election and markets seem unrecognizable" adding that the Trump election represented a paradigm shift. Fiscal easing would take over from monetary easing and would allow for the dollar and rates to rise in unison, a trend not seen for a while.
The key economic releases this week are ISM non-manufacturing on Monday and University of Michigan consumer sentiment index on Friday. There are a few scheduled speaking engagements from Fed officials this week.
Away from the US economic calendar, initially focus will be on the Italian referendum result, which already appears to have been largely digested by the market, despite a variety of unknown consequences still to emerge. It will then shift quickly to a critical ECB meeting.
Blink, and you missed the "sell off" from Italy's failed referendum vote.