Asia

Submitted by Eric Bush via Gavekal Capital blog,

We all know that stocks are a leading indicator of economic growth and disappointingly recent breadth measures suggest that economic activity may slow over the next several months.

In the charts below, we show the percentage of stocks trading above the 200-day moving average for various market aggregates, regions and sectors (with a 1-quarter lead) against the 3-month moving average of the ISM Manufacturing Index.

Moments ago, the Hollywood Reporter released the much anticipated Michael Wolff interview with Steve Bannon, the controversial president-elect's chief strategist. As a preface, Wolff reveals that Bannon - unlike virtually anyone else in the "credible" media - predicted exactly how things would play out:

While Caterpillar's CEO may have resigned recently, admitting that he misjudged the business strategy, the stock does not appear to be bothered, soaring by 15% since the Trump victory on hopes an infrastructure push would make excavators great again. For now, however, the woes at the heavy industrial manufacturer continue, with yet another month of declining global sales, the company's 47th in a row.

It has been more of the same this morning as the dollar extended its advance on the still undeteremined Trump reflationary policy measures after Yellen signaled an interest-rate hike could be imminent, while bond yields around the globe rose again, metals declined,  European stocks advanced and futures were modestly in the red just shy of all time highs.

In an overnight session dominated by the latest political developments out of the US where Hillary Clinton officially claimed the democratic nomination, the financial newsflow focused on China's trade data, where exports fell 4.1% from a year earlier, in line with expectations, but imports dropped 0.4% from a year earlier, the smallest decline since they turned negative in November 2014, likely reflecting higher commodities prices but really driven by "imports" from Hong Kong which rose to $2.48b, the highest since at least 1999; and a 243% y/y surge in dollar term, also a historical high.