A new report from the Hoover Institution written by Senior Fellow Joshua Rauh and entitled "Hidden Debt, Hidden Deficits: How Pension Promises Are Consuming State And Local Budgets," does a masterful job illustrating the true severity of America's public pension crisis, a topic to which we've dedicated a substantial amount of time over the past couple of years.
It was over half a year ago that many predicted, this site included, that Crispin Odey's double down, all in bet on central bank failure would be his "make it or break it" swan song, which if incorrect would also lead to the shuttering of his hedge fund. Well, rumors of Odey's demise appear to have been greatly exaggerated again, because despite being down 9.9% YTD and down 31.1% LTM in his Odey Mac fund, not only is Crispin Odey still around, but he is bearish as ever, as he explains in his latest April letter to clients.
His full letter:
Submitted by Michael Lucci via IllinoisPolicy.org,
New Bureau of Labor Statistics data show Illinois’ black residents have an unemployment rate of 12.7 percent, more than double the state’s overall rate.
While the dollar and TSY yields both dropped to session lows shortly after the FOMC announcement hit as traders focused on the Fed disclosure that FOMC voters thought it prudent to await evidence an "economic slowdown is transitory" suggesting the committee still wanted to hike rates but was willing to wait for the certainty of data, Goldman's disagreed and according to a just released assessment by Goldman's Jan Hatzius, the statement was more hawkish than perceived by the market.
ConvergEx's Nicholas Colas asks "Can the US economy get back to the 3% GDP growth it enjoyed in the 1980s – mid 2000s?"
White House economic policy makers say “Yes”.
Most professional economists say “No”.
History says, “Worker productivity drives economic growth, not politicians or economists. Fix productivity and you can get to 3%.”
History may not be laconic, but it has a point.