Business

In today's only major risk event, at 3pm CET (9am ET) Mario Draghi will hold his quarterly hearing before the European Parliament, and his final scheduled appearance before next week’s monetary-policy decision, in which the ECB president will be pressed about his plans for stimulus withdrawal. And, as has been the case in recent months, Draghi will respond that while euro-area data has been improving (this week may show the strongest economic confidence in a decade and the lowest unemployment since 2009) Draghi can still point to consumer prices that are struggling to lift off.

Focus in this holiday-shortened week will turn to US data, especially NFP, Fed speakers and Eurozone inflation. UK PMIs will also draw attention as elections approach. We also get GDP data from Canada, Sweden and Switzerland. In EM, there are MP meetings in Brazil & Israel. On Monday, with US, UK and Chinese markets closed, Euro FX and bond markets will be on Mario Draghi alert on Monday as the ECB president speaks to the European parliament.

NFP, Fedspeak, Eurozone inflation

The price of gold went up $12 this week, and that of silver $0.50. That’s not bad for gold and silver owners, and not good for the vast majority who are all-in on the dollar (though they don’t think of it that way).

Since we began publishing this Supply and Demand Report four and a half years ago, there have been several constants. One, we have focused on the supply and demand fundamentals, and the mechanics of the market.

U.S. markets are closed for the Memorial Day holiday, and with UK and Chinese markets also closed for various holidays, it has been a quiet start to the week, with S&P futures essentially unchanged, trading at  2,415, up 0.06%, a new all time high.

The US economy is struggling with too much debt at every level. A debt jubilee isn’t going to solve it; and shifting demographics will likely make it worse. So, is America headed for two decades of lost growth like Japan? Dr. Lacy Hunt, who was interviewed by Erik Townsend on the latter's MacroVoices podcast, considers the endgame for the US economy... Well, we could get lucky, Hunt says.