Business

While China growth has been slowing, and monetary conditions tightening, few (if any) have predicted any prolonged deflation (let alone a recession), yet overnight - for the first time ever - the $1.7 trillion Chinese bond market inverted, flashing a warning signal to the world that something is wrong.

Early on Thursday, the five-year yield rose to 3.71%, breaking above the 10-year yield for the first time since records began - even though the latter, at 3.68%, was near a 25-month high.

Authored by Mike Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

Having turned over the past few months from reflationist, to increasingly skeptical of the whole reflation impulse scenario - mostly on the back of China's infamous credit impulse crashing - RBC's Charlie McElligott takes a look at the three "negative narratives" that are gradually emerging for the markets. But before listing them, here is his latest summary of where the increasingly more confused market finds itself:

From "The Battle Of Who Could Care Less" by Charlie McElligott

Having gone all-in on a Hillary Clinton victory ahead of the elections, Saudi Arabia has quickly pivoted in its "appreciation" of the Trump administration, and having realized that the fastest way to Trump's heart is through the US Treasury's bank account, it is preparing to invest an "unprecedented" amount of money in the US. According to Bloomberg, the Kingdom’s sovereign wealth fund will announce plans to "deploy as much as $40 billion into U.S. infrastructure." The investment will likely be unveiled as early as next week when Trump is scheduled to visit the kingdom.

The “Trump trade” in U.S. stocks that was spurred by President Donald Trump’s November election has come and gone, according to Tony Dwyer, Canaccord Genuity Group Inc.’s chief market strategist.