Business

After surging in November and December, January's final wholesale inventories print showed a 0.2% decline - worse than expected and the weakest since Feb 2016. This negative 'hard' data point just piles on the weakness being forecast for Q1 GDP (but don't let that stop The Fed hiking).

Nov/Dec saw the "if we build it, they will come" economy surge in inventories on Trump hope...

But they didn't - Wholesale sales tumbled 0.3% in January... (though we note YoY, sales rose significantly thanks to that spike in December)

Following the massive ADP employment beat (but productivity disappointment), March rate hike odds finally upticked to certainty. Fed Funds futures now imply a 100% chance that The Fed hikes next week.

Up from low 20s to 100% in a month...

What did The Fed see that suddenly spooked them all?

Which reminds us of the WTF-est chart we know of right now - as The Fed's forecast for
GDP collapses, so the odds of a rate hike soar (FF Futs tumble)...

Following Q3's 3.3% surge in US worker productivity - the best in 2 years - Q4 was a disappointment as growth slowed to just 1.3% (below the 1.5% expectation).

Productvity growth slowed to just 1.3% in Q4 - the exact average growth rate of President Obama's 8 year reign.

Following January's surge in employment (biggest gain in 7 months), February's ADP print exploded higher to 298k (5 sigma above all expectations). This is the third biggest monthly employment gain of the expansion. It appears the 'Trump Effect' is the biggest driver as the ADP payroll surge was mostly due to a record surge in employment for goods-producing industries.

Private sector employment surged by 298,000 for the month, with goods producers adding 106,000. Construction jobs swelled by 66,000 and manufacturing added 32,000.

As 2016 drew to a close, even as US bank stocks posted some of the biggest gains since Mr. Trump got elected, it seemed their counterparts down-under aren’t doing that well! All signs point to a huge weakening in Aussie bank stocks in 2017. But the bigger question is: Will we hear a loud boom as banks down under go bust?

THE OMINOUS SIGNS