For the latest glimpse of the euphoria in the equity market, look no further than the Snap(chat) IPO, whose order book closes at noon today and is expected to price tomorrow, March 1, after the close. While the initial price range was presented as $14-16, according to Bloomberg orders for the public offering are concentrating in the $17-18 range, well above the high end of the range.
Continuing the trend of 'soft' survey data strong performance and expectation beats, The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence surged above the highest analyst's expectation to 114.8 - the best print since July 2001.
Consumers’ assessment of current conditions held relatively steady in February. Those saying business conditions are “good” declined slightly from 29.0 percent to 28.7 percent, while those saying business conditions are “bad” also decreased, from 15.9 percent to 13.2 percent.
Following a series of better than expected GDP-feeding prints, consensus had expected Q4 GDP to tick higher in the first revision released today, rising from 1.9% to 2.1%. However, that did not happen and instead, the revised print came in unchanged at 1.9%. Notable underlying revisions include: an upward revision in consumer spending, both in services and goods; a downward revision to business investment, mostly in intellectual property products and equipment; and a downward revision to state and local government spending, primarily in structures.
On the heels of a disappointing revised Q4 GDP print, the US trade balance for January printed a $69.2 billion deficit. This is the second largest deficit since August 2008 (slightly smaller than the March 2015 plunge) as the dollar surge has not helped.
The biggest driver the deficit increase was 4.8% MoM increase in Consumer Goods (notably Auto exports rose 9.3%)
The $69.2bn deficit is considerably worse than the $66.0 billion expectations, and is lower than the lowest analyst expectation.
For a majority of China watchers, while Beijing's goalseeked GDP reports are largely dismissed as politburo propaganda, most of the attention falls on the PBOC and banking sector's credit creation, and particularly, how this translates into broad money supply, or M2, growth: after all, in a nation which has roughly $35 trillion in bank assets, the biggest variable is how much cash is being injected into the system, and what happens with said cash.