Business

In the first stage of the Trump Rally (from the election to year-end), investors appeared to hedge as the market rallied. However, since the start of the new year, Goldman Sachs' proprietary macro hedging indicator has traded along with equities, suggesting that investors are buying stocks and discarding protection. As Goldman's John Marshall and Katherine Fogertey explain, the Trump rally has changed the market - Investors Stopped Hedging.

As the Goldman duo notes, Long-dated liquid hedge costs at a multi-year low, and explains:

Markit's Services PMI tumbled to 5-month lows in February (down to 53.8) - erasing the post-Trump-bounce - as rates of expansion in activity, new work and employment all eased. The February drop in PMI is the largest in a year as Markit warns that "business optimism has mellowed.. and companies are becoming more cautious."

Of course that is the absolute opposite of what ISM Services reports - surging higher to a 15-month high at 57.6 (well above expectations)

With the Fed Funds future market pricing in an almost certain 25 bps rate hike on March 15 following a series of hawkish comments by Fed officials this week, hitting 90% as of this morning, up threefold in the past week... 

When it comes to sellside opinions about yesterday's SNAP IPO, there are two camps: those from analysts who belonged to the underwriting syndicate, which for obvious reasons (Goldman and Morgan Stanley were both paid over $20 million for their underwriting efforts) have been broadly positive about the public offering... and those from everyone else.

Silver On Sale - 4% Fall On Massive $2 Billion of Futures Selling

Silver fell a very sharp 85 cents from $18.40 per ounce to as low as $17.65 per ounce yesterday for a 4.25% price fall soon after the London bullion markets closed yesterday despite no market news or corresponding sharp moves in other markets.