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"Bucket Economics" For Global Macro Investing

"Bucket Economics" For Global Macro Investing

By Chris at www.CapitalistExploits.at

I was recently sent a research piece by one of my LPs.

The piece was from the principal of a well known hedge fund and this particular manager has grave concerns for the US stock market. In the article to clients he laid out all the reasons why fundamentally none of it makes much sense. I can't and won't disagree with the primary analysis.

He's not the only one.

Barclays: "Equities Rushed To Price In The Reagan 1986 Tax Cuts Before Crashing In 1987"

Barclays: "Equities Rushed To Price In The Reagan 1986 Tax Cuts Before Crashing In 1987"

With concerns rising that the market has gotten well ahead of itself over the practical reality of Trump tax cuts - most recently voiced by Goldman which over the weekend said that "we are approaching the point of maximum optimism and S&P 500 will give back recent gains as investors embrace the reality that tax reform is likely to provide a smaller, later tailwind to corporate earnings than originally expected" - Barclays decided to look at one of recent history's most notable tax regime changes: the Reagan tax cuts.

What it found was interesting.

A Chink of Light into London’s Gold Vaults

A Chink of Light into London’s Gold Vaults

Submitted by Ronan Manly, BullionStar.com

On 5 February, the Financial Times of London (FT) featured a story revealing that the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) plans to begin publishing data on the amount of real physical gold actually stored in the London precious metals vaulting network. The article titled “London gold traders to open vaults in transparency push” can be read here (accessible via FT subscription or via free monthly FT read limit).

Kraft Heinz Withdraws $143 Billion Offer For Unilever, After Warren Buffett Got Cold Feet

Kraft Heinz Withdraws $143 Billion Offer For Unilever, After Warren Buffett Got Cold Feet

Last week's mega-merger announcement, the deliberately leaked acquisition of Unilever by the Warren Buffett-backed Kraft Heinz - a deal which would create a giant consumer goods conglomerate - has fallen apart, following Unilever's adverse reaction to the deal, and speculation that Kraft would not pursue a hostile transaction.  As the FT reports, Kraft Heinz withdrew its $143bn pursuit of consumer products rival Unilever only two days after it publicly confirmed its interest in acquiring the Anglo-Dutch company.

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