Business

As part of his just released 2017 outlook, JPM's Michael Cembalest, chairman of markets and investment strategy, notes that while "political upheavals and unorthodox central bank actions persist" he prdictes "more of the same in 2017: single digit returns on diversified investment portfolios as the global economic expansion bumps along for another year." Of course, the alternative is a recession call, which considering the current expansion will be the third longest in US history by the time Trump is inaugurated in less than three weeks, is probably not too farfetched.

Following Q3's 2% contraction, and with analysts' highest expectation at +5.1% (StanChart), Singapore GDP grew at a shocking 9.1% in Q4 QoQ.

This is the biggest QoQ growth since Q1 2012...

This was four standard deviations above average estimates.

These are preliminary numbers based on the first two minths of the quarter but the rebound was seemingly based on China's exuberance...

• Manufacturing +14.6% q/q;
• Services +9.4% q/q

Because domestically:

While Venezuela CDS suggest the country's default odds remain well over 90%, and its currency on the black market continues to plunge into the abyss of hyperinflation, something odd happened today: Venezuela’s government issued $5 billion in dollar debt for the first time in more than five years, selling bonds in an opaque transaction to the state bank Banco de Venezuela SA and the central bank, Reuters and Bloomberg report.

The Obama administration were behind the recent ban on cash in India, which saw millions of citizens take to the streets in protest.  In early November, without any warning, the Indian government banned two of the largest denomination bills at Washington’s request. Norberthaering.de reports: US-President Barack Obama has declared the strategic partnership with India a priority of his foreign policy. China needs to be reined in. In the context of this partnership, the US government’s development agency USAID has negotiated cooperation agreements with the Indian ministry of finance.

What is Janet Yellen thinking?

The Yellen Fed raised interest rates again in December 2016.

More than this, Yellen has promised the Fed will be raising rates THREE times in 2017.

This is astounding when you consider that the Fed is promising this at a time when the $USD is at a 13-year high.

Janet Yellen is playing a very dangerous game here. There is simply no logical explanation for what she’s doing here It’s madness.

A strong $USD hurts:

1)   Corporate profits (47% of corporate sales from abroad).

2)   GDP growth.