Smart investors have noted that the S&P 500 just staged a very dangerous looking move.
That move was when S&P 500’s 50-week moving average broke below its 100-week moving average. You can see this in the green circle below.
This move is called a “Death Cross” and for good reason. The last time it happened was in 2008, right before the entire market CRASHED.
The time before that was right before the Tech Bubble burst, crashing stocks.
In what is the traditional end to earnings season, moments ago the second biggest employer in the US after the government, Walmart reported results which after several quarters of disappointment solidly beat expectations, reporting Q1 EPS of $0.98 (down 4.9% Y/Y), higher than the $0.88 expected even as revenue of $115.9 billion (up 0.9% Y/Y) missed expectations of $133.3 billion.
After yesterday's algo-driven mad dash to close the S&P green both for the day and for the year following Fed minutes that came in shocking hawkish, the selling has continued overnight, led by the commodity complex as rate hike fears have pushed oil back down some 2% from yesterday's 7 month highs, which in turn has dragged global stocks lower to a six-week low, while pushing bond yields higher across developed nations as the market suddenly reprices the probability of a June/July rate hike.
Just as we warned was probable, The PBOC sent a message loud and clear to the newly hawkish Fed following today's surge in the dollar after the minutes were released. With the 2nd biggest daily devaluation since the August collapse, China pushed the Yuan fix against the USD down to its lowest since early February - barely above the January lows.
The non-linearity of inflation psychology and the present danger of stagflation
Submitted by John Butler at GoldMoney Inc. The full report can be accessed here.
Introduction