Business

Yesterday we observed the biggest 2-day steepening in the 2s30s yield curve since the Trump election, following a confluence of events which we discussed in this post, and which resulted in a generous payday for at least one rates trader.

So has the long-awaited moment of a long-end selloff arrived? Or, as SocGen's FX strategist, Kit Juckes, put it, are "Bonds on the run?" Maybe not so fast, especially since much of the recent increase in yields has been for breakevens. Here are his thoughts.

Bonds on the Run?

 

Authored by Lew Rockwell via Mises Canada,

As the financial crisis of 2008 took shape, the policy recommendations were not slow in coming: why, economic stability and American prosperity demand fiscal and monetary stimulus to jump-start the sick economy back to life. And so we got fiscal stimulus, as well as a program of monetary expansion without precedent in US history.

Authored by Wip via Jim Quinn's Burning Platform blog,

It’s hard to think of something so complicated that has become so popular as fast as bitcoin.

Last week, when looking at the latest Chinese credit data, we made two troubling observations: first, China's economic growth was slowing across a number of key data points despite massive new credit injected into the economy over the past year. Second, that the formerly massive credit impulse - which was responsible for pushing the global economy and markets out of the early 2016 rut - was no more, and that overall system credit growth slowed to 14.4% yoy from 14.9% the prior month, which was the slowest total credit growth in the past 27 months.

Authored by Gail Tverberg via Our Finite World blog,

Economists, including Ben Bernanke, give all kinds of reasons for the Great Depression of the 1930s. But what if the real reason for the Great Depression was an energy crisis?