Business

Just over a year ago, a black swan landed in the middle of Europe, when in what was then dubbed a "Spectacular Development" In Austria, the "bad bank" of failed Hypo Alpe Adria - the Heta Asset Resolution AG - itself went from good to bad, with its creditors forced into an involuntary "bail-in" following the "discovery" of a $8.5 billion capital hole in its balance sheet primarily related to ongoing deterioration in central and eastern European economies.

In a somewhat more manic-than-usual introduction to his 2016 macro outlook, Eclectica's Hugh Hendry - the first of the big bears to throw in the towel and kiss the ring of central planners - admits that things did not turn out quite as he expected, noting "I used to be a big deal", that "I had $1.5 billion in AUM" and that "life is cruel."

Submitted by Pater Tenenbrarum of Acting Man

Gold: Still Misunderstood

Gold just had its best quarter in 30 years. Not surprisingly, gold bears are coming out of the woodwork en masse in the mainstream media and the analyst community (see e.g. this recent write-up by Mish on the Goldman Sachs analyst who has been screaming “short gold” since right before it started rocketing higher in early February). Below we will discuss a specific assertion that tends to be repeated over and over again.

After four consecutive quarters of declining EPS for the S&P (including the estimated 9% plunge in Q1 earnings) is it time to declare victory over the global earnings recession? Here is the answer according to Morgan Stanley's Jonathan Garner.

Has the Global Earnings Recession Finished?

We think it's too soon to declare that the global earnings recession has finished and remain neutral equities in our asset allocation framework.

Someone seems to have hit the emergency button at the Fed, as even though the central bank said that everything was just fine with the American economy just a few weeks and months ago, the situation has currently escalated into a full-blown panic mode.