Over the past several months, we’ve kept a close eye on post-crisis CLOs or, CLO 2.0s, as they’re affectionately known. In the interest of not recounting the story in its entirety here (i.e. for the sake of brevity), here's a list of posts those interested should review:
While this all started with a currency "war," it seems - according to a stunningly candid transcript of Japan's finance minister's conversation with none other than Paul Krugman - that the real endgame here is actual war. Aso remarked that "a similar [deflationary mindset] had occurred in the US in the 1930s. What solved the question? War! Because World War II had occurred during the 1940s and that became the solution for the United States. [We] have to switch [the Japanese] mindset... we are looking for the trigger."
It appears the complete decoupling from economic reality of the so-called US equity 'market', combined with the collapse in a data-dependent Fed's credibility - topics we have extensively covered - has reached the mainstream. Barron's always-insightful Randy Forsyth exposes the ugly reality that this is a "Bullard" market and we are just living in it as the flip-flopping Fed head is "the most visible telltale of the shifting winds of Fed expectations.
Back in October when we first looked at ground zero of the commodity price collapse, we found something striking: as of the end of 2014, one half of China's commodity companies with corporate debt were totally insolvent - based on Macquarie data they were unable to cover even one interest payment (let along debt maturity) with existing cash creation.
Following the examples of Canada, Finland, New Zealand and the Netherlands, Japan is considering giving free money in the form of ‘vouchers’ to poor young people. Surveys showed that under-34s in Japan have cut their spending and the government could stimulate economic activity by injecting free money into the system which will pay for itself in time by expanding the economy while maintaining social cohesion among the classes.