Business

One month ago, just as Cushing storage was rapidly approaching its operational capacity, we warned that Cushing (and increasingly all parts of PADD 2) is denying storage requests. We also said that overall PADD 2 inventories had risen to a new record high 155 million barrels...

... hinting that it was just a matter of time before excess production would be shifted to other regions, most notably the Gulf Coast, or PADD 3.

In February, Cripsin Odey's quite bearish $11 billion Odey Asset Management had a tumultuous month: it was down -10.6% as the overall market levitated relentlessly on low volume hopes of central bank stimulus and intervention ever since the February 11 lows, leading to the biggest short squeeze in history and the most overbought market ever.

Safe haven buying is ignoring precious metals and piling into bonds today with the long-end notably outperforming (-6bps) today. This has compressed the yield curve even more, putting more and more pressure on the "rate-hike environment" hopers who bought banks like they were told...

This has compressed 2s30s below the "Dimon Bottom"

Fool me three times?

Gold has historically rallied for at least 100 trading days after the first hike by the FOMC, but as HSBC's Jim Steel explains, this time it could be longer. Steel sees three key reasons to remain bullish and forecasts USD1,300/oz this year (though warns that beyond that level, physical demand may weaken and help curb further rallies.)

Tightening and gold Background: The end of the long-run bull market

Lately being a bear has meant sharing quite a crowded field. First it was JPMorgan, which not only said to sell any rallies, but three weeks ago said it had gone "underweight stocks for the first time since the financial crisis"; then technicians such as Evercore ISI summarized their sentiment as follows "I'm out; my bullish tactical call is over", and then on Monday, even Goldman jumped on the bandwagon urging clients "to go to cash" ahead of "expected elevated volatility" and that the "current relief rally" is almost over.