"First quarter earnings will be difficult," warns JPMorgan's global head of equity strategy, suggesting investors consider reducing market exposure and/or "consider buying protection." While Rees is not quite as directly 'sell-it-all ' - adding that he hopes H2 earnings will pick up - his overall message, beneath the JPM vineer, is not bullishly biased.
Last week, when looking at the latest fund flow data, we noted an unexpected finding: as BofA itself said, "clients don’t believe the rally, continue to sell US stocks" and added that the "smart money" has now sold stocks in the face of this bear market rally for a near record seven consecutive weeks."
In September/October 2015, the S&P 500 miraculously rallied just over 13% in 25 days amid falling earnings expectations, before collapsing back to fresh cycle lows. It has now been 25 days (and just over 13%) since the Mid-Feb lows (and earnings expectations are plumbing new lows)...
The same but different?
h/t @ErikFridman
Nope - the same!?
Trade accordingly.
Submitted by Bill Bonner of Bonner & Partners (annotated by Acting-Man.com's Pater Tenebrarum),
Grotesque Mutants
Let’s see… U.S. corporate earnings have been going down for three quarters in a row. The median household income is lower than it was 10 years ago. And now JPMorgan Chase has increased its estimated risk of a recession to about one in three.
From the grotesque mutants collection
As we wrote first thing this morning, while the fate of Valeant CEO Pearson was largely known (he is now out) and that Ackman will go down with the Valeant ship was largely as expected, what was a complete shock in the copmany's press release was that the decision to throw its former CFO, Howard Schiller who formerly ran Goldman's healthcare group, under the bus and accuse him of cooking the company's books.