Business

Roughly four year after our readers were well aware that contrary to infantile suggestions that the US consumer is deleveraging, and was instead being burried under trillions in new auto and student loans...

... the Fed has finally "figured it out."

Consumers across the country are borrowing more to buy cars and go to school https://t.co/mkKAoVya2o pic.twitter.com/DxMiHo7kki

— St. Louis Fed (@stlouisfed) March 3, 2016

Having risen to its highest level ever in August 2015, the volatility of volatility has collapsed. As traders position increasingly for negative interest rates in the US, the last month has seen 'uncertainty' crash to its most complacent in over 18 months.. and all this as well-chosen data corners The Fed (if it was truly data-dependent) to hike rates (or at best make hawkish over tones). Perhaps this is peak complacency ahead of tomorrow's do-or-die jobs data?

Earlier today we showed how, courtesy of massive synthetic positions where Oil ETFs are currently net long 272k lots of oil, equal to 56% of the front month open-interest in futures, the price of oil is being propped up by ETF buying, either outright or via an ongoing, relentless short squeeze.

Submitted by Mark Brandly via The Mises Institute,

Lately, I’ve wondered how my neighbor, Sam, affords to buy so much stuff. He appears to have an unlimited budget.

When I asked him about this, Sam asked, “Do you think I’m spending too much?”

 

“That depends,” I said, “How much money do you make?”

 

“I take home $100,000 a year.”

 

As the gap between GAAP and non-GAAP converges (and not in a bullish way), BofA reports the earnings estimate revision ratio (ERR) fell for the sixth consecutive month, to 0.47 from 0.49 – its lowest level since April 2009. So despite the exuberant, we're going back to record highs, rally off the lows, the real mother's milk data suggests more than twice as many cuts vs. increases to earnings forecasts over the last three months... and it's not just Energy anymore.

This is the lowest S&P500 GAAP earnings per share since 2010.