Submitted by JP Koning via Moneyness blog,
Negative interests rates are the shiny new thing that everyone wants to talk about. I hate to ruin a good plot line, but they're actually kind of boring; just conventional monetary policy except in negative rate space. Same old tool, different sign.
In a world which has long since crossed the monetary twilight zone of negative rates, and which is spiraling ever deeper into NIRP, below we present some quite fascinating observations on debt, NIRP and how the latter leads to the deleveraging of the former, and thus encourages global deflation - something which in retrospect will be (and in many cases already has been) seen as a central bank fatal flaw, and confirmation said central bankers have zero understanding of the process they have unleashed.
From HSBC's Anton Tonev.
Authored by Mark St.Cyr,
One of the premier features that was to help markets interpret upcoming policy moves made at the Federal Reserve was the idea and implementation of: forward guidance. This new feature was enacted by the former Chairman Ben Bernanke. The reasoning? In a nut shell it was no more than a heads up to the financial markets of what the Fed. would do, and when. i.e., Hit this metric of X and the Fed. will do Y. So – position accordingly.
Not only has the Yen strengthened and stocks collapsed since BoJ's Kuroda descended into NIRP lunacy but, in a dramatic shift that threatens the entire transmission mechanism of negative-rate stimulus, Japanese banks (whether fearing counterparty risk or already over-burdened) have almost entirely stopped lending to one another. Confusion reigns everywhere in Japanese markets with short-term interest-rate swap spreads surging and bond market volatility spiking to 3 year highs (dragging gold with it).
Exactly one week ago, when BofA's Michael Hartnett explained what global capital markets need to rebound from their recent doldrums, he laid out what he sees are the world's two biggest problems: