Via KesslerCompanies.com,
Counter-intuitively, the recent increases in core inflation are normal in the sequence of how a recession evolves. The typical business-cycle sequence is that the manufacturing sector weakens first, then employment and consumer spending, and lastly, inflation. In fact, it is often not until the recession is over that inflation begins to come down.
Inflation is the longest lagging indicator.
The most important officials in the financial universe gathered in Shanghai this week for the G-20 summit.
Despite the fact the the group failed to devise and announce a coordinated policy response to address stubbornly low global growth, subdued inflation, and market volatility, everyone was in good spirits.
Well, almost everyone...
Submitted by EconomicPrism.com's MN Gordon (annotated by Acting-Man.com's Pater Tenebrarum),
Fudging Numbers
It all seems so systematic, arranged, and orderly. Sixty seconds make a minute, 60 minutes make an hour, 24 hours make a day, and one day equals one complete rotation of the planet earth. Roughly every 30 days the moon orbits the earth – which is one month. Then every 12 months the earth orbits the sun – which is one year. So far so good…right?
Oldish German calendar.
We have previously documented how, with the fourth quarter earnings season almost completed, Q4 EPS are poised to drop by 3.3% Y/Y, making this the third consecutive quarter of declining year over year earnings, in other words an earnings recession and a half.
Three days ago in “Canary, Meet Coal Mine: These Are The Tranches Where The CLO 2.0 Meltdown Begins,” we revealed precisely where the rot is starting to show in the CLO market which, you’re reminded, is starting to unravel amid a string of downgrades in HY energy and a general aversion to junk as the US heads into a default cycle.