The algos are happy. Headlines proclaim Iran "supports" the Doha proposal to "freeze" oil production levels (at record levels) and oil spikes. However, what they failed to grasp was Iran's lack of commitment to actual production levels... i.e. Iran fully supports production cuts for everyone else... but will not freeze its own production.
Oil prices limped higher overnight in their ubiquitous carry-driven way, only to tumble quickly this morning as the reality that, as Goldman says "at record levels, this production freeze doesn't help at all") and clear indications from the meetings in Tehran that Iran will do 'whatever it takes' to increase its production to pre-sanctions levels. WTI is back below $30.
As Bloomberg notes,
Any output-freeze agreement among key oil producers is being dismissed out of hand by oil bears.
In 17 of the 19 times in the last 100 years that Industrial Production has contracted for 3 consecutive months, the US economy has entered recession. Today 0.7% drop YoY is the 3rd month of declines.
The only times in the last 100 years that 3 months of US Industrial Production contraction has not coincided with a recession was in 1934 and 1952... (and the current decline is larger than 1952's in aggregate)
While we have generally disagreed with Morgan Stanley's Adam Parker flipflopping on stocks some two years ago, or just as the market was topping out, we can't find fault with his latest note released today in which he openly admits that "our portfolio advice has been pretty horrendous lately. As my 90-year old Latin teacher used to tell the class in 1985, “son, you are in left field, without a glove, with the sun in your eyes."
Producer Prices (ex food and energy) jumped 0.4% MoM - the biggest rise since Oct 2014 (and dramatically hotter than the 0.1% rise expected). Rubbing salt into Fed mandate wounds still further is last month's print was also revised higher and YoY (+0.6%) is the highest since Sep 2015. Across the range of PPI data, all items came hotter than expected in January (despite a 5% drop in Energy) with Food rising most.
Inflation hotting up...