Phil's article below was from yesterday morning, before today's big spike in oil prices (2-12-16). He follows up on Oil Fears Spook Investors (Again), from Monday.
Why is oil currently up almost 12%? "US crude surges as much as 12% on output-cut hopes." Hopes.
(Screenshot: Yahoo's chart)
Markets Collapse as Sweden goes Negative & Oil Spills Over
From Thursday's article by Phil at Phil's Stock World
Following last week's dramatic 31 rig decline, Baker-Hughes reports another major decline of 28 oil rigs (dropping the total oil rigs to 439 - lowest since Jan 2010 - for the 8th consecutive week). The total rig count dropped 30. On the heels of OPEC rumors overnight and then re-rumored bullshit from Venezuela, oil prices had already surged during the day and the biggest 2-week rig count decline in 10 months after initially being sold, is rallying once again.
It is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore the collapse of global credit markets... as Markit warns the number of distressed bonds (trading greater than 1000bps) is "escalating at an alarming pace."
26% of the entire high yield bond universe is now at "distressed" levels - the highest since the financial crisis.
As we noted previously, credit is screaming and for now stocks are shurgging... and credit is always right in the end!
1,100 is the target...
Earlier today, we discussed how after 8 long years spent wandering punch drunk through a dream-like Keynesian wonderland where all financial assets rise inexorably, the world finally woke up last month with a terrible hangover only to discover that after 637 rate cuts and $12.3 trillion in asset purchases, “quantitative easing” has been a “quantitative failure.”
A week ago we exposed the real reason for the "crazy volatility" in crude oil markets, and specifically the driver of the immense rally (despite weak data) in crude - a massive liquidation of the triple-inverse ETF DWTI. Today we have another mysterious, even larger spike in crude oil prices (for no good reason other than 'old' misunderstood rumors about OPEC production cuts). The driver, it would appear, is another liquidation as the ETF trades at a huge discount to NAV. The last time this happened, it didn't last.