Business

It is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore the collapse of global credit markets... as Markit warns the number of distressed bonds (trading greater than 1000bps) is "escalating at an alarming pace."

26% of the entire high yield bond universe is now at "distressed" levels - the highest since the financial crisis.

As we noted previously, credit is screaming and for now stocks are shurgging... and credit is always right in the end!

1,100 is the target...

Earlier today, we discussed how after 8 long years spent wandering punch drunk through a dream-like Keynesian wonderland where all financial assets rise inexorably, the world finally woke up last month with a terrible hangover only to discover that after 637 rate cuts and $12.3 trillion in asset purchases, “quantitative easing” has been a “quantitative failure.”

A week ago we exposed the real reason for the "crazy volatility" in crude oil markets, and specifically the driver of the immense rally (despite weak data) in crude - a massive liquidation of the triple-inverse ETF DWTI. Today we have another mysterious, even larger spike in crude oil prices (for no good reason other than 'old' misunderstood rumors about OPEC production cuts). The driver, it would appear, is another liquidation as the ETF trades at a huge discount to NAV. The last time this happened, it didn't last.

2016 is shaping up to be the year that everyone finally comes to terms with the fact that the monetary emperors truly have no clothes.

To be sure, it’s been a long time coming. For nearly 8 years, market participants and economists convinced themselves that the answer was always “more Keynes.” Global trade still stagnant? Cut rates. Economic growth still stuck in neutral? Buy more assets.

With the S&P down just about 10% YTD, hedge funds especially of the levered-beta variety have not had a good year; that said, it would be fair to say that many have not had a terrible year either. In fact, as the following table of hedge fund performance by some of the most marquee names shows, while there are certain outliers in the YTD column some 6 weeks into 2016, most of the hedge funds have actually done that, and while most are around the flatline, there are some notable outliers, perhaps most notably Boaz Weinstein Saba which late last year many had left for dead.